Top Five Best Picture Winners and Why ‘The Power of the Dog’ Is This Year’s Front-runner

The Power of the Dogthe Best Picture front-runner

The Power of the Dog 2021

Jane Campion's adaptation of Thomas Savage's 1967 novel, shot in New Zealand standing in for 1925 Montana. Two cattle-ranching brothers, Phil and George Burbank (Benedict Cumberbatch and Jesse Plemons), come apart after George marries a widow, Rose (Kirsten Dunst), whose son Peter (Kodi Smit-McPhee) draws the hostile Phil into a slow-burning battle of wills that ends with Phil dead of anthrax poisoning, the same way Savage's own real-life, similarly villainous step-uncle died. All four leads are nominated, along with Campion for director and screenplay; the film leads the season with 12 nominations and has already won Best Picture Drama at the Globes, Best Picture at the BAFTAs, and Best Picture at the Critics' Choice Awards.

Jane Campion, craft, and the scorethe filmmaker and her collaborators

The Piano 1993

The first thing both hosts think of when Campion's name comes up; she won the Best Original Screenplay Oscar for it and the film played Cannes.

In the Cut 2003

Campion's most controversial film, a sensual, violent contemporary noir that cast Meg Ryan wildly against type; panned on release, reassessed since.

Bright Star 2009

Both hosts' favorite Campion film, shot by Greg Fraser (who also shot this year's Dune) rather than her usual cinematographer.

Zola 2021

The other 2021 awards-adjacent credit for The Power of the Dog's cinematographer, Ari Wegner; Sean calls it one of the best-looking, most cleverly shot movies of that year.

Red River 1948

The Western touchstone for the mentor-student bond the film seems to be setting up between Phil and Peter, before it curdles into something else.

The Searchers 1956

What The Power of the Dog actually looks like on screen, per Sean, thanks to Wegner's classical Western visual language.

There Will Be Blood 2007

Sean's favorite Jonny Greenwood score, though he calls it slightly derivative of Greenwood's other work.

Phantom Thread 2017

Sean's pick for Greenwood's most gorgeous score.

Spencer 2021

Greenwood's other 2021 score: "jazz horror" to this film's "banjo horror"; he plucked a cello to sound like a banjo for both projects.

Licorice Pizza 2021

Greenwood contributed only a small amount of music here; Sean calls it his favorite movie of the year regardless.

Dune 2021

The heavy favorite for both score (Hans Zimmer, who built custom instruments) and cinematography (Greg Fraser); Sean thinks it has most of the below-the-line categories locked up.

The Best Picture raceCODA, the Sam Elliott dust-up, and Netflix's track record

CODA 2021

The other real contender, riding a SAG ensemble win and warm on-the-ground buzz from the Oscar nominee luncheon; Joanna's gut-check pick to win, "just so I get to feel like a prophet."

Belfast 2021

Sean's pick for the more likely Producers Guild upset over The Power of the Dog this weekend.

King Richard 2021

A surprise Best Editing winner at the Ace Eddie Awards over the weekend, historically a meaningful signal in the Best Picture race.

The Lost Daughter 2021

Won the Indie Spirit Award for screenplay, part of a late surge that's shifted the Adapted Screenplay conversation away from Campion toward Maggie Gyllenhaal.

Drive My Car 2021

Joanna's favorite film of the year, invoked as the hypothetical loser they'd be second-guessing if CODA takes Best Picture.

Parasite 2019

The comparison point for how the industry is reportedly clamoring around the CODA cast this awards season.

Brokeback Mountain 2005

The cautionary precedent a colleague raised: the gay cowboy movie that lost Best Picture to Crash despite Ang Lee winning Best Director.

Crash 2004

Beat Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture in a result the hosts hope a more diversified Academy wouldn't repeat today.

The Irishman 2019

Part of Netflix's long, expensive Best Picture campaign that keeps coming up short.

Mank 2020

Another entry in that same Netflix pattern: heavy campaigning, no Best Picture win.

Roma 2018

Netflix's closest prior call, from Alfonso Cuarón; if The Power of the Dog loses, Sean says that's real evidence of a Netflix bias among voters.

Joanna's Top 5 Best Picture winnersrevealed No. 5 up to No. 1

No. 1

It Happened One Night 1934

No. 1 - Frank Capra's Clark Gable/Claudette Colbert road comedy. Joanna calls it a perfect, delightful film that so much of the genre owes a debt to.

No. 2

Moonlight 2016

No. 2 - Barry Jenkins's film, which won Best Picture in the famous La La Land mix-up. Joanna loved it in theaters, rewatches it often, and calls it her go-to cathartic cry.

No. 3

All About Eve 1950

No. 3 - Joseph Mankiewicz's showbiz classic with Bette Davis and George Sanders. Sean picked the same film at No. 3; both call it a real contender for greatest screenplay ever written.

No. 4

Lawrence of Arabia 1962

No. 4 - David Lean's epic. Joanna saw it at the Cinematheque and calls the big-screen experience one of the best you can have.

No. 5

West Side Story 1961

No. 5 - included to make sure a musical was represented, in honor of fellow host Amanda Dobbins's love of the genre.

Sean's Top 5 Best Picture winnersrevealed No. 5 up to No. 1

No. 1

The Godfather Part II 1974

No. 1 - Sean's pick over the original, for its focus on the hardening of Michael Corleone's soul, even though he's never fully warmed to the Sicily flashbacks.

No. 2

The Apartment 1960

No. 2 - Billy Wilder and I.A.L. Diamond's script, with Jack Lemmon and Shirley MacLaine. Sean found it bleaker on this rewatch than he remembered.

No. 3

All About Eve 1950

No. 3 - Sean's pick matched Joanna's exactly.

No. 4

The Silence of the Lambs 1991

No. 4 - Sean's case for a rare genre winner: a thriller that he thinks doesn't get talked about enough given how frequently it comes up in conversation.

No. 5

The Godfather 1972

No. 5 - Sean just saw a restored 50th-anniversary print at the Paramount, introduced by Francis Ford Coppola, James Caan, and Talia Shire in person.

Also mentioned raised along the way

In passing Ben-HurMy Fair LadySchindler's ListGladiatorA Streetcar Named DesireLa La LandTitanicGrand HotelThe Godfather Part IIIGentleman's AgreementThe Great ZiegfeldThe Best Years of Our LivesDoctor ZhivagoThe BatmanDoctor StrangeThe RoadLet Me InSlow WestX-Men: ApocalypseDawn of the Planet of the ApesJungle CruiseGame NightThe MasterInterview with the VampireBring It OnMarie AntoinetteMelancholiaEternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads

TV Top of the LakeBook of Boba FettSherlock

Games FIFA World Cup Launch Edition

Podcasts The TownWTF with Marc MaronFresh AirBlank Check

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