The Summer Movie Preview Game. Plus: David Cronenberg on ‘The Shrouds.’

The new Academy ruleswatch-the-movies mandates, a casting Oscar, AI guidance

Sinners 2025

This week's box-office sensation, floated as a ripe nominee in the new casting category; Sean uses it to walk through how the casting-directors branch will shortlist and bake-off the award.

The Verdict 1982

Amanda's example of the courtroom 'disregard that testimony' trick (Paul Newman gets great testimony from a witness, then Milo O'Shea debunks it), cited while mocking the Academy's do-not-help/do-not-hinder AI guidance.

The Summer Movie Preview Gameguess the domestic box office and Metacritic score; lowest combined miss wins

Thunderbolts* 2025

Marvel's May 2 opener from the Beef team, selling Sebastian Stan and Florence Pugh rather than big stars. Box-office guesses $199M–$215M off a Black Widow comp; Metacritic 61–64 for 'polite' reviews.

Friendship 2025

A24 comedy with Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd, out of Toronto, marketed with a corduroy 'male friendship' hat. Very funny in the room but I-Think-You-Should-Leave-coded and a tough theatrical sell; $12M–$22M, Metacritic 77–80.

Final Destination Bloodlines 2025

Sixth in the series after a ~15-year gap, May 16. A reliable brand dropped into a crowded corridor; $42M–$46M, Metacritic 44–62. Sean and CR are planning a kill-rankings pod.

Lilo & Stitch 2025

Disney live-action from Marcel the Shell's Dean Fleischer Camp, the big Memorial Day kids' tentpole. Nostalgia play but post–Snow White nerves; $180M–$218M, Metacritic 56 (both hosts).

Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning 2025

The May 23 heavyweight and older-millennial draw. $202M–$220M, Metacritic 83 (both hosts). Sean hadn't seen it yet, prompting the running 'you have to make connections / send emails' bit.

Bring Her Back 2025

The Philippou brothers' Talk to Me follow-up with Sally Hawkins, May 30. Less viral heat than Talk to Me; $23M–$48M, Metacritic 67. A $48M finish would rank among the biggest A24 releases ever.

Karate Kid: Legends 2025

Roughly the sixth Karate Kid, May 30, with a built-in Cobra Kai base. The widest gap of the game: $66M vs. $113M (new-Ghostbusters comp); Metacritic 42–43.

The Phoenician Scheme 2025

The Wes Anderson film Sean has already seen, May 30. $23M–$25M, Metacritic 75–78, roughly where Anderson has settled outside Grand Budapest, Moonrise Kingdom, and Isle of Dogs.

Ballerina 2025

John Wick spinoff with Ana de Armas, June 6, reshot to fold Keanu in. Doubts about de Armas as a draw; $87M–$140M off A Quiet Place: Day One and Venom comps, Metacritic 42–57.

The Life of Chuck 2025

Mike Flanagan's Stephen King novella adaptation, TIFF Audience Award, Neon, June 6. Sean saw it: 'the feeling of magic' plus a cheese factor; either a $70M crowd-pleaser or a small indie. $18M–$23M, Metacritic 62–66.

How to Train Your Dragon 2025

Universal's live-action remake, June 13, from original co-director Dean DeBlois. A sturdy franchise with a sequel already announced; $168M–$250M, Metacritic 62–74.

Materialists 2025

Celine Song's second feature with Dakota Johnson, Chris Evans, and Pedro Pascal, June 13. Big gap on faith in the A24 brand and Past Lives comps: $9M vs. $25M; Metacritic 73 (both hosts).

28 Years Later 2025

The Danny Boyle / Alex Garland reunion, June, pitched as high-class studio horror. $88M (both hosts) off a Civil War comp; Metacritic 77–83.

Elio 2025

Original Pixar, June 20, punted out of 2024, with the studio visibly nervous. Low-end Pixar zone alongside The Good Dinosaur and Onward; $117M–$120M, Metacritic 72 (both hosts).

F1 2025

Apple's Brad Pitt racing movie from Joseph Kosinski (Warner Bros. distributing), June 27, with obvious Top Gun: Maverick DNA. Debate over whether F1 travels in the US; $132M–$178M, Metacritic 61–74.

M3GAN 2.0 2025

June 27, same day as F1. Both hosts kept it under $100M ($90M–$99M); Metacritic 64–68. Recreating the original's viral camp moment will be hard.

Jurassic World Rebirth 2025

The seventh Jurassic, Gareth Edwards directing Scarlett Johansson and Jonathan Bailey, July 2. $366M–$384M, Metacritic 58–70. The springboard for Sean's rant that this money should fund original swings like Sinners.

Superman 2025

James Gunn's DCU relaunch, July 11, 'probably the most important movie of the summer.' Huge gap ($257M vs. $410M) on the theory that the one-word title is the whole pitch (a Barbie comp); Metacritic 68 (both hosts).

Eddington 2025

Ari Aster's A24 COVID-era New Mexico Western, July 18, counter-programming for starving cinephiles. $23M–$28M off a Beau Is Afraid box-office comp; Metacritic 67–91, Sean taking the big swing on critical acclaim.

Smurfs 2025

The animated Smurfs movie with Rihanna as Smurfette. Sean smells a secret hit off a Garfield Movie comp: $90M–$114M, Metacritic 34–39.

I Know What You Did Last Summer 2025

Legacy slasher sequel with Madelyn Cline, Freddie Prinze Jr. returning (Sarah Michelle Gellar's character stayed dead). Trap comp; $41M–$66M, Metacritic 43–54.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps 2025

Pedro Pascal and a pregnant Sue Storm (Vanessa Kirby), July 25, with a well-liked retro-futurist trailer. $378M–$390M, Metacritic 56–67. Sean is betting on a Marvel bounce-back; Amanda isn't.

The Bad Guys 2 2025

DreamWorks sequel with Sam Rockwell, August. 'Influencer-famous' but real playground currency among kids; $84M–$118M, Metacritic 54–61.

The Naked Gun 2025

Liam Neeson comedy reboot that needs audiences to show up for a comedy. Good vibes among 40-something dudes at CinemaCon; $42M–$62M, Metacritic 53–59.

Together 2025

The Dave Franco / Alison Brie body-horror movie out of Sundance with an awesome CinemaCon trailer. $16M–$36M, Metacritic 70–82, helped by a soft August.

Freakier Friday 2025

Freaky Friday legacy sequel, August 8. Sean found the CinemaCon footage 'downright dreadful' and 'shot with a potato'; big gap of $72M (Mean Girls comp) vs. $117M, Metacritic 44–48.

Weapons 2025

Zach Cregger's Barbarian follow-up, August 8, running the Longlegs mystery-marketing playbook. $53M–$72M, Metacritic 75–76.

Nobody 2 2025

Bob Odenkirk sequel, August 15. $18M–$33M, Metacritic 56–58. A surprise the sequel exists at all, given the first's modest gross.

Honey Don't! 2025

Ethan Coen's second solo feature, co-written with Tricia Cooke, reuniting with Margaret Qualley, a Drive-Away Dolls follow-up. $9M–$10M, Metacritic 56–72.

The Roses 2025

The last movie of the summer: Jay Roach remaking The War of the Roses with Olivia Colman and Benedict Cumberbatch as the warring couple. $8M–$13M, Metacritic 62–67.

‘The Shrouds’ and Cronenberg's career

Adam Naiman on

The Shrouds 2024

Naiman's best film of 2025, seen at TIFF. Vincent Cassel plays Karsh, a grieving tech magnate (with Cronenberg's own hair) whose GraveTech shrouds livestream his dead wife's decomposing body; Diane Kruger plays three roles. A funny, arch grief film 'so close to not being good,' loaded with Cronenberg's checklist of doppelgangers, screens, conspiracy, and desire. Partly financed by Saint Laurent. Cassel is a 'drip god.'

Adam Naiman on

The Brood 1979

Where Naiman and Sean tell newcomers to start: Cronenberg's post-divorce, custody-battle 'evil kid' movie, his version of Kramer vs. Kramer, where family rage is literally externalized. Biological horror rather than supernatural.

Adam Naiman on

Videodrome 1983

'A movie about the internet before the internet,' and a monument to Toronto pettiness: the Civic TV parody is Cronenberg's grudge against City TV founder Moses Znaimer, whose name gets a head blown off.

Adam Naiman on

The Fly 1986

The mid-'80s gore-fest that gave people a slightly wrong idea of him, but 'you don't get Jurassic Park Jeff Goldblum without Cronenberg Jeff Goldblum.' A best-Cronenberg contender for Sean alongside Crash and The Shrouds.

Adam Naiman on

Crash 1996

The Cannes provocation they had to invent an award for. Sean saw it at a COVID drive-in with a club's weekend playing over the fence.

Adam Naiman on

A History of Violence 2005

The Viggo Mortensen film that convinced people 'he's back' after Spider underperformed; Oscar-nominated for its script and, oddly, William Hurt instead of Mortensen or Maria Bello. Has post-Tarantino hitman comedy, including a great dropped gun.

Adam Naiman on

Dead Ringers 1988

Two hours nearly gore-free save the one dream scene where Geneviève Bujold bites the Jeremy Irons twins apart: 'a little goes a long way.' Sean finds it a better idea than a film and vows to revisit it.

Adam Naiman on

Scanners 1981

The one with 'punk rock fandom' thanks to the meme-famous exploding head and Michael Ironside's off-the-charts energy.

Adam Naiman on

Crimes of the Future 2022

The 'return to body-horror form' before The Shrouds, which Naiman thinks Neon mishandled by selling it like a William Castle you'll-throw-up gimmick.

Adam Naiman on

The Substance 2024

Coralie Fargeat's hit, constantly compared to Cronenberg. Naiman calls the comparison superficial (more manic than anything Cronenberg made) but notes his real inheritors (Ducournau, Fargeat) are largely women and queer filmmakers.

David Cronenberg

David Cronenberg on

The Shrouds 2024

Cronenberg, 82, on his most personal film: begun as a Netflix series (he wrote two episodes before it collapsed), reworked into a feature. Grief as a physical, bodily loss after his wife died in 2017; conspiracy as the mind's search for meaning; the GraveTech is 'totally feasible now.' He drives a Tesla like Karsh, has Bluetooth hearing aids and plastic lenses ('totally bionic'), and credits Howard Shore's score as 'another character' carrying the desolation Karsh won't show.

David Cronenberg on

The Girl with the Needle 2024

Cronenberg's answer to the show's closing question: Magnus von Horn's Danish film, 'beautiful and horrifying at the same time,' with fantastic cinematography.

Also mentioned raised along the way

In the Academy-rules talk Inside Out 2The BrutalistEmilia PérezAnora

Comps and asides in the preview game Deadpool & WolverineIt Ends with UsIFBlack WidowThe MarvelsCaptain America: Brave New WorldBlink TwiceSaw XMarcel the Shell with Shoes OnSnow WhiteMufasa: The Lion KingThe Greatest ShowmanA Quiet Place: Day OneVenom: The Last DanceBlondePast Lives28 Days LaterThe Good DinosaurOnwardTop Gun: MaverickMission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part OneFast XRogue OneThe CreatorBarbieBatman v Superman: Dawn of JusticeMan of SteelLonglegsBarbarianNobodyMean GirlsFreaky FridayThe Princess DiariesTrapGlass OnionThe Garfield MovieScreamDrive-Away DollsThe War of the RosesJurassic WorldJurassic World Dominion

Not eligible for the game (streaming or on deck) MountainheadAnother Simple FavorFear Street: Prom QueenHeads of StateThe Old Guard 2Happy Gilmore 2Kinda PregnantG20A Working ManThe Accountant 2The AmateurHavoc

Around the Shrouds conversation Naked LunchSpiderCosmopolisMaps to the StarsEastern PromisesA Dangerous MethodeXistenZThe Dead ZoneM. ButterflyShiversRabidStereoThe Woman in the YardBlack BagMickey 17A Minecraft MovieTitaneRawAlphaDominoTrouble Every DayRosemary's BabyThe ExorcistKramer vs. KramerJurassic ParkLawrence of ArabiaThe DeadFull Metal JacketStand by MeThe Shawshank RedemptionAmerican Fiction

Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads

TV BeefCobra KaiDrive to SurviveGame of ThronesThe Last of UsStranger ThingsOuter BanksGinny & GeorgiaGilmore GirlsRipleyDisclaimerNathan for YouI Think You Should Leave

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