The Oscar Noms Mailbag: Is ‘Sinners’ vs. ‘One Battle After Another’ a Race? Plus: Best Picture Power Rankings.

Mercy 2026

Chris Pratt argues with an AI from a chair; none of the three had seen it, and it still took No. 1.

Avatar: Fire and Ash 2025

Dethroned after five weekends atop the box office.

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple 2026

Down 70% in weekend two to $21M; has Sean doubting the third film gets made.

28 Years Later 2025

Send Help 2026

Sam Raimi's Rachel McAdams movie; slated for Friday's show.

Shelter 2026

Jason Statham's annual January action title, from Black Bear's new distribution arm.

The Moment 2026

Charli XCX's Sundance premiere.

Melania 2026

Brett Ratner's Amazon-financed documentary, now heading for a limited release.

Iron Lung 2026

Markiplier self-financed this video-game adaptation onto ~2,000 screens.

People We Meet on Vacation 2026

On Netflix; New Orleans doubling for everywhere. Both save their real notes for Friday.

No Other Choice 2025

The most-asked question: how did Park Chan-wook miss Best Picture and International Feature? Neon's Christmas commercial play that's outgrossing its awards titles.

The Testament of Ann Lee 2025

Amanda Seyfried performance both rate highly; Searchlight bought it late and it was shut out.

Sirât 2025

Neon Cannes title that took the International Feature slot; not in theaters until Feb. 6.

It Was Just an Accident 2025

Neon's earlier, Palme-winning release in the same slate.

Sentimental Value 2025

Nine nominations, including four for acting.

Sinners 2025

A record 16 nominations; the headline out of nomination morning and the reason the race feels open.

One Battle After Another 2025

13 nominations, third-most all time; still their front-runner, and the 'it's time' narrative for PTA.

Hamnet 2025

Won the Golden Globe for Best Drama; underperformed in the U.S., stronger overseas.

Frankenstein 2025

Nine nominations; its bump came at Toronto after a soft Telluride.

Marty Supreme 2025

Chalamet as the striver who peaks late; the surprise New York screening, not really a festival movie.

The Secret Agent 2025

Firmly in the race now, which pulled Wagner Moura into the acting conversation.

Bugonia 2025

Emma Stone; adapted from a South Korean film. Both admit they wrongly left it off the December rankings.

The Housemaid 2025

Sydney Sweeney sleeper that held for weeks, an 'Anyone But You' repeat.

Song Sung Blue 2025

Kate Hudson's nominated turn; Sean preferred Hugh Jackman.

Weapons 2025

Among the films Sean would have swapped in over F1.

Die My Love 2025

Amanda's Jennifer Lawrence pick that was never getting into a stacked Best Actress field.

The Assessment 2024

Amanda's overlooked pick: an Elizabeth Olsen performance now stranded on Hulu.

Wake Up Dead Man 2025

Sean's write-in for Josh O'Connor, terrific across four films this year.

The Mastermind 2025

The other O'Connor performance Sean would honor.

Is This Thing On 2025

Peyton Manning's cameo, floated as a fit for a one-scene supporting award.

Eddington 2025

Sean's No. 2 of the year; never a real Oscar contender, and by design.

Superman 2025

The punk-rock closing needle drop got a mention.

F1 2025

The Best Picture nominee both call silly but are glad exists.

Jay Kelly 2025

Premiered soft at Venice; 'the most Toronto movie that ever existed,' per David Sims.

A House of Dynamite 2025

Played well at Venice but didn't translate.

KPop Demon Hunters 2025

Amanda's kid covered his eyes.

Predator: Badlands 2025

Elle Fanning, capping a big year for her.

Wicked 2024

Wicked for Good 2025

The sequel-fatigue case study: a story split in half and quickly reviled.

Dune: Part One 2021

Dune: Part Two 2024

Half the nominations of Part One, the template for the Dune Messiah question.

Avatar 2009

Avatar: The Way of Water 2022

Took a nominations hit like Dune, but still landed Best Picture.

One Battle After Another 2025

No. 1 - still the pick on the evidence, racism and genre snobbery the main things working against it.

Sinners 2025

No. 2 - 16 nominations make a Sinners win no longer a shock.

Hamnet 2025

No. 3 - the Golden Globe drama winner, a different kind of period film.

Sentimental Value 2025

No. 4 - nine nominations and four for acting edge it past Marty.

Marty Supreme 2025

No. 5 - deeper below-the-line support could yet make it stronger.

Frankenstein 2025

No. 6

The Secret Agent 2025

No. 7 - Wagner Moura got in where Joel Edgerton didn't.

Train Dreams 2025

No. 8

Bugonia 2025

No. 9 - four nominations, same as F1; the meaningless-but-hotly-argued spot.

F1 2025

Last - Sean concedes he should have predicted it; an international hit that earns its place.