The Big Picture · Discussion

The Idiot's Guide to Winning Best Picture. Plus: We Make the Case for 'Parasite.' | The Oscars Show

February 3, 2020/ 72 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins

Sean and Amanda run down the guild sweep for '1917,' take another crack at explaining the Academy's preferential ballot, and spend the back half building the case for 'Parasite' over the presumptive front-runner.

46 films across 3 segments.

AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.

The Idiot's Guide to Winning Best Picturethe guild recap and the preferential ballot

Jojo Rabbit 2019

Taika Waititi beat Greta Gerwig for the WGA's adapted screenplay award, which Sean and Amanda read as the clearest signal yet that Gerwig won't win the Oscar. Both are lukewarm on the film itself.

Little Women 2019

The screenplay they think should have beaten Jojo Rabbit.

Parasite 2019

Won the WGA for original screenplay and is the subject of the episode's second half.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2019

Shut out of the WGAs since Tarantino isn't a member, which Sean says muddies its screenplay case at the Oscars.

Marriage Story 2019

Discussed as a once-presumed screenplay front-runner that's fallen off the map entirely, a shift Amanda compares to Mike Mills's '20th Century Women.'

20th Century Women 2016

Amanda's comparison for how 'Marriage Story' connected more with critics and podcast hosts than with a wider audience.

1917 2019

Won Best Picture and Best Director at the BAFTAs and has swept the Globes, PGA, and DGA, which the hosts call a boring, locked-in outcome given it's not competitive for editing, screenplay, or any acting award.

Ford v Ferrari 2019

Amanda's running example for how the preferential ballot's elimination-and-redistribution math actually works.

Joker 2019

Comes up as Amanda's last-place pick on her preferential ballot.

The Irishman 2019

Both hosts rank it in their personal top five, ahead of 1917.

Green Book 2018

Last year's preferential-ballot case study; its win convinced Amanda the film had broader top-three support than the 'divisive' narrative suggested.

Roma 2018

The other 2019 Best Picture front-runner, cited alongside Green Book as neck-and-neck contenders that year.

Should the Academy Blow Up Best Picture?the 1970s vs. the 2000s

The Dark Knight 2008

Its 2009 Best Picture snub is why the Academy expanded the nominee field and brought back the preferential ballot in the first place.

The French Connection 1971

Part of Sean's case that 1970s Best Picture winners are a stronger lineup than the 2000s'.

The Godfather 1972

The Sting 1973

The Godfather Part II 1974

One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest 1975

Rocky 1976

Annie Hall 1977

The Deer Hunter 1978

Kramer vs. Kramer 1979

Star Wars 1977

Sean's quibble: it maybe should have beaten Annie Hall.

Crash 2005

One of the 2000s winners Sean and Amanda call a 'dog baby' outcome by comparison.

The Artist 2011

Argo 2012

Sean likes it personally but questions whether it's an important movie.

The Shape of Water 2017

Moonlight 2016

The win Sean hoped would permanently change the Academy's taste; he says the opposite happened.

Avengers: Endgame 2019

Sean's joking punchline for where this argument about cinema's changing cultural role leads.

We Make the Case for Parasite

Parasite 2019

Amanda has been on it since her first viewing. The hosts say it doesn't waste a moment, swinging from satire to horror to devastation within minutes, and that it holds up whether you watch it casually or pick it apart.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2019

Sean's favorite film of the year, contrasted with Parasite as a fairy tale built on two unlikable leads made righteous by killing the Manson Family.

1917 2019

Its lead is virtuous and mission-bound by design; the hosts contrast that straightforward heroism with Parasite's morally messier Kim family.

The Host 2006

Bong Joon-ho's monster movie that's also an ecological parable, part of the hosts' case that he's unusually conscious of his own genre commentary.

Mother 2009

Cited for its fraught thriller premise about a mother protecting her family.

Snowpiercer 2013

Amanda's wife loved this one on a rewatch binge after seeing Parasite; the hosts call it and Okja more absurdist and 'meta' than Parasite's grounded, human-scale story.

Okja 2017

Same rewatch binge; Amanda wasn't its biggest fan on first watch.

Memories of Murder 2003

Sean rewatched it recently on a rough streaming rip; Neon holds the rights and is reportedly planning a Blu-ray.

The Departed 2006

Scorsese's only competitive Best Director win, which Sean calls a cool crime thriller but far from his best work, offered as a precedent for Bong potentially winning now for a film that isn't his 'best.'