The 2026 Summer Movie Preview "Boom or Bust" Game

The newsBox-office check-in on the way to CinemaCon

Project Hail Mary 2026

Strong holds have it heading toward the $600-700M worldwide zone. Cited as evidence grown-up movies with real stars are thriving.

The Drama 2026

Also holding well, on its way to roughly $100-150M worldwide (Sean says $138M surprised him). Three weeks running of good news.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 2026

Still on top of the box office, unsurprisingly. Sean later calls the trailer, which he keeps getting served, 'absolutely execrable.'

You, Me & Tuscany 2026

Sean caught a solo Thursday screening. He was the only person in the room. They're holding the discussion for a future episode.

The 'Boom or Bust' gamePredicting domestic box office and Metacritic score for the summer slate — in release order

The Devil Wears Prada 2 2026

David Frankel returns with Streep, Hathaway, Blunt, and Tucci; tracking $66M opening. Amanda went big at $210M / 68 MC; Sean $184M / 57, comping Thunderbolts and Twisters. Original made $124M (62 MC) in 2006.

Hokum 2026

Damian McCarthy horror for Neon: Adam Scott trapped in a scary Irish hotel. Sean $18M / 78 on the strength of McCarthy's Shudder films; Amanda $10M / 62.

The Sheep Detectives 2026

Amazon MGM cozy-mystery adaptation with detectives who are sheep: Hugh Jackman, Emma Thompson, Bryan Cranston, Nicholas Braun, Brett Goldstein, Regina Hall, Hong Chau, Molly Gordon. Amanda $8M; Sean bet on old people at $51M. Both 63 MC.

Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) 2026

3D concert film directed by Eilish and James Cameron. Sean went way up on Big Jim at $160M / 71 (comping the Eras Tour's $180M); Amanda $42M / 65. Amanda flags it as the one wild Sean guess.

Mortal Kombat II 2026

Karl Urban as Johnny Cage, delayed from last year into May. Sean thinks it loses to Billie Eilish at $137M / 46; Amanda $60M / 44.

Is God Is 2026

Amazon MGM, Aleshea Harris directing, with Vivica A. Fox, Janelle Monáe, and Sterling K. Brown as two sisters on a Kill Bill-style revenge quest. Amanda $12M / 74; Sean $11M / 57. A tough mid-May drop.

Obsession 2026

Curry Barker's TIFF monkey's-paw horror: a young man wishes his crush into obsessing over him. Sean's seen it and enjoyed it; guesses ranged $15M and $42M, with Metacritics of 69 and 66. Amanda's flagged as the possible breakout.

In the Grey 2026

Guy Ritchie's latest operatives picture, with Henry Cavill, Eiza González, Jake Gyllenhaal, and Rosamund Pike. Sean $37M / 52 (comping recent Ritchie); Amanda $18M / 37, having slept through The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare.

I Love Boosters 2026

Boots Riley's first feature since Sorry to Bother You, starring Keke Palmer; good SXSW reviews. Sean $18M / 81; Amanda $19M / 64.

Passenger 2026

Andre Øvredal's van-life horror with Melissa Leo: a couple pursued by an inescapable demonic stalker. Popped up out of nowhere. Amanda $9M / 52; Sean $12M / 34.

The Mandalorian and Grogu 2026

Jon Favreau's Memorial Day Star Wars. Sean went low at $275M / 48, worried it's a TV-tie-in like Marvel's flops; Amanda used Lilo & Stitch math for $421M / 52.

Pressure 2026

WWII drama about the meteorologist who picked the D-Day launch date. Sean comped Nuremberg's $14M / 61; Amanda $27M / 61, betting summer light gets old folks to the theater.

The Breadwinner 2026

Nate Bargatze's lead debut: a dad minding three daughters during a home reno after his wife wins on Shark Tank. Amanda $35M / 48; Sean, down on it, $52M (on Bargatze's arena draw) / 27.

Tuner 2026

Daniel Roher thriller from Black Bear: Leo Woodall as a piano tuner pulled into crime, with Dustin Hoffman and Havana Rose Liu. Sean's seen it and picks it to go viral; $9M vs. Amanda's $28M. Both 74 MC.

Backrooms 2026

A24's adaptation of Kane Parsons's viral YouTube series, with Renate Reinsve and Chiwetel Ejiofor. Sean calls it the horror breakout at $67M / 82 (A24's 4th-biggest ever); Amanda $16M / 61.

Masters of the Universe 2026

Travis Knight's He-Man, with Jared Leto as Skeletor. Sean's worried the trailer buries the camp; $88M / 55. Amanda $90M, because his childhood is at stake.

Power Ballad 2026

John Carney musical from Lionsgate: Paul Rudd as a never-was songwriter in Ireland whose song gets stolen by boy-bander Nick Jonas. Sean's seen it ('okay,' no Once): $26M / 71; Amanda $16M / 74.

Scary Movie 2026

The franchise revival with Anna Faris and Regina Hall back. Sean comps Final Destination Bloodlines at $84M / 52; Amanda $52M / 54.

Disclosure Day 2026

Steven Spielberg's secretive original sci-fi, tapping UAP anxiety. Amanda went big at $165M / 74; Sean, undershooting to protect himself, $121M / 83.

Stop That Train 2026

Adam Shankman comedy with RuPaul, counter-programming Disclosure Day. Sean $16M / 43; Amanda $3M / 47.

Toy Story 5 2026

Pixar, with an iPad as the villain. Sean $401M / 89; Amanda $503M (rounding up from Inside Out 2) / 78. A low MC would break the franchise's 84-92 streak.

The Death of Robin Hood 2026

Michael Sarnoski's revisionist take with Hugh Jackman and Jodie Comer; A24. Sean $26M / 66; Amanda $12M / 64.

Girls Like Girls 2026

Hayley Kiyoko's coming-of-age dramedy for Focus. Sean $9M / 78; Amanda $5M / 58.

Supergirl 2026

Craig Gillespie's DCU entry with Milly Alcock. Sean $159M / 50 (comping Thunderbolts); Amanda $190M / 53. Sean's worried it's too violent for his daughter.

Jackass: Best and Last 2026

Paramount; the last one did strong, sturdy business. Sean $60M / 56; Amanda $81M / 64.

The Invite 2026

A24's Sundance pickup: two couples, one strange evening, with Seth Rogen, Olivia Wilde, Edward Norton, and Penélope Cruz. Sean $34M / 79 (Materialists zone); Amanda $44M / 76.

Minions & Monsters 2026

Illumination; the movie-about-movies premise Sean's convinced features minions drinking Negronis. Predictions basically identical at $350-352M; Metacritics 61 (Sean) and 54 (Amanda).

Young Washington 2026

Angel Studios' July 3 George Washington origin story, with Ben Kingsley, Andy Serkis, and William Franklin-Miller. Sean $15M / 44 (no Jesus, no Sound of Freedom pop); Amanda $19M / 39.

Moana 2026

Disney's live-action remake. Sean $412M / 53; Amanda $410M / 39: 'the reviews on that trailer are bad,' but seven-year-olds won't care.

Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass 2026

David Wain comedy with Zoey Deutch. Sean's seen it ('okay'): $6M / 58; Amanda $9M / 71.

The Odyssey 2026

Christopher Nolan's Homer adaptation, the biggest movie of the summer with two clear weeks. Sean $350M / 83 (Oppenheimer was $330M); Amanda $412M / 88.

Cut Off 2026

Comedy with Jonah Hill and Kristen Wiig: two rich kids cut off from the family money, opposite The Odyssey. Sean $47M / 59; Amanda $28M / 66.

Evil Dead Burn 2026

The sixth Evil Dead, directed by Sébastien Vaniček; Sean's birthday movie. Sean $67M / 64; Amanda $60M / 63.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 2026

Tom Holland and Zendaya return, with Bernthal's Punisher and Michael Mando's Scorpion. Sean $580M / 62; Amanda $527M / 51. No Way Home was $814M domestic, but that was a quasar.

Fall 2: Deadpoint 2026

Sequel to the tower-climbing thriller, two new climbers. Sean $29M / 53; Amanda (afraid of heights) $7M / 41.

Ice Cream Man 2026

Eli Roth horror. Sean's a fan and went $17M / 36; Amanda $9M / 34, since Roth isn't beloved critically.

One Night Only 2026

Will Gluck rom-com: Callum Turner and Monica Barbaro fall in love on the one night a year premarital sex is legal, with Molly Ringwald, LeVar Burton, Maya Hawke, and Julia Fox. Sean $38M / 61; Amanda $76M / 52, hoping it fills the July women's-movie desert.

Super Troopers 3 2026

Broken Lizard returns. Sean $48M / 52; Amanda $22M / 47.

The End of Oak Street 2026

David Robert Mitchell's Twilight Zone-esque suburb story with Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor. Sean $81M / 71; Amanda put it in the 'Weapons slot' at $131M / 73, dependent on pre-release hype.

Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie 2026

Sean $42M / 39; Amanda $59M / 29.

The Rivals of Amziah King 2026

Andrew Patterson's (The Vast of Night) odd Matthew McConaughey drama for Black Bear, out of SXSW 2025 with strong reviews and outside Oscar buzz. Sean $6M / 68; Amanda $11M / 84.

Insidious: Out of the Further 2026

A franchise restart without Patrick Wilson: stalkers force a family onto the astral plane. Sean $38M / 54; Amanda $57M / 44.

Mutiny 2026

Jean-François Richet's Jason Statham vehicle: Statham stuck on a boat killing everyone, trailer set to KRS-One's 'Step Into a World.' Sean's got a vibe: $38M / 58; Amanda $29M / 42.

Spa Weekend 2026

Comedy with Leslie Mann, Isla Fisher, Anna Faris, and Michelle Buteau: 'bad moms' zone. Sean $8M / 39; Amanda $41M / 53.

Cliffhanger 2026

RowK's troubled Stallone remake with Lily James, which may not even come out. Sean $27M / 54; Amanda $14M / 33.

Coyote vs. Acme 2026

The Looney Tunes movie once shelved for a tax write-off, now out via Entertainment. Sean $36M / 78; Amanda $10M / 72, comping The Day the Earth Blew Up's ~$9M.

The Dog Stars 2026

Ridley Scott's post-flu apocalypse, with Jacob Elordi, Margaret Qualley, Josh Brolin, Guy Pearce, and Benedict Wong, from a Mark L. Smith script. Sean $85M / 70; Amanda $61M / 53 ('late Ridley').

Finding Emily 2026

Teen dramedy with Angourie Rice and Spike Fearn: a wrong number sparks a campus-wide search. Sean $9M / 61; Amanda $4M / 72.

Idiots 2026

Macon Blair's Sundance comedy (formerly 'The Shitheads') with Dave Franco and O'Shea Jackson Jr. Sean $8M / 69; Amanda $7M / 53, though the jokes only get you so far.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth 2026

Bonus round: the Fincher-directed, Tarantino-written Netflix Cliff Booth movie, rumored for Venice. As a thought exercise, if a studio opened it wide: Sean $107M / 73; Amanda $95M / 78. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood did $142M domestic.

Daniel Goldhaber on 'Faces of Death'

Daniel Goldhaber on

Faces of Death 2026

Goldhaber and Isa Mazzei's IFC reboot, with Dacre Montgomery as Arthur, a killer chasing anonymous notoriety, and a content-moderator lead. Goldhaber traces it from a 2019 Legendary pitch (built around TikTok, which Mazzei introduced him to) through COVID, the writers' strike shooting through their production, and a studio head calling it 'morally despicable' before IFC took it. He models it on Bogdanovich's Targets, not a slasher; its argument is that an attention economy incentivizes mass violence. On the 1978 original, whose real, uncredited director (an ABC nature-documentary maker) he interviewed, he says he can't call it good, but it's an interesting movie that feels like no human made it on purpose.

Also mentioned raised along the way

Comps and callbacks ThunderboltsTwistersThe HousemaidBarbieSong Sung BlueSorry to Bother YouThe Last Voyage of the DemeterScary Stories to Tell in the DarkLilo & StitchReady Player OneThe FabelmansWest Side StoryInside Out 2Toy StoryToy Story 3NurembergSound of FreedomSolo MioChip 'n Dale: Rescue RangersFinal Destination BloodlinesCivil WarUncut GemsFallThanksgivingAnyone But YouEasy ABumblebeePigA Quiet Place: Day OneThe Vast of NightMaterialistsDownton Abbey: The Grand FinalePaddington in PeruMickey 17Regretting YouThe Ministry of Ungentlemanly WarfareGuy Ritchie's The CovenantThe Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes MovieOnceOppenheimerNapoleonTop Gun: MaverickOnce Upon a Time in HollywoodAvatarSinnersEddingtonA Minecraft Movie

Streaming (not in the game) SwappedRemarkably Bright CreaturesJack Ryan: Ghost WarThe Dink

In the Goldhaber interview How to Blow Up a PipelineCamTargetsZodiacSpeed RacerManhunterThe Silence of the LambsIron Lung

Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads

TV The MandalorianHouse of the DragonShark Tank

Podcasts Blank Check

Video games Mortal KombatThe Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

Ads TremfyaBoar's HeadFanDuelT-Mobile Home Run DerbyRed Bull