The Big Picture · Discussion · Roundtable
February 20, 2019/ 69 min/ Sean Fennessy · Amanda Dobbins
Sean and Amanda splice together a week of roundtables with Ringer colleagues: why A Star Is Born isn't the front-runner, next year's contenders, Hindsight Awards for this year's snubs, the Green Book/Bohemian Rhapsody outrage cycle, why Netflix wants an Oscar for Roma, and a full walk through preferential balloting.
39 films across 6 segments.
AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.
Why Isn't A Star Is Born the Front-Runner?with Chris Ryan and Kate Halliwell
Eight nominations, second-most of the field, and once pitched as a five-for-five sweep of the Big Five. The hosts land on Bradley Cooper's guarded press campaign and a Best Director snub as the reasons it stalled; Kate pushes back that the ending landed fine for her.
Next Year's Contenderswith Chris Ryan and Kate Halliwell
Chris's pick for a Best Picture nomination, a Return of the King-style thank-you note to the saga.
Jon Favreau's remake, floated as a popular-Oscar contender.
Past Toy Story films have flirted with Best Picture; whether this one does depends on a popular-Oscar category that may not happen.
Greta Gerwig's follow-up to Lady Bird, starring Saoirse Ronan and Timothee Chalamet.
Marielle Heller's Mr. Rogers biopic starring Tom Hanks, after Can You Ever Forgive Me.
Lulu Wang's Sundance breakout starring Awkwafina.
James Gray's space opera with Brad Pitt; the hosts debate whether it's a Gravity or a cult curiosity the Academy skips.
Tarantino's 10th film, with Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Margot Robbie as Sharon Tate.
Floated half as a joke, including a Robert Downey Jr. Oscar campaign for his final Tony Stark turn.
Another Sundance title, starring Adam Driver and Annette Bening as Dianne Feinstein.
John Crowley's adaptation of the Donna Tartt novel, after Brooklyn, with an October release date that mirrors A Star Is Born's.
Andy Muschietti's sequel with Jessica Chastain and Bill Hader; horror rarely plays at the Oscars.
The Hindsight Awards the makeup calls the Oscars will owe in 10 or 20 years
Bradley Cooper's future Best Director award, for writing, playing, singing, and directing the thing and still getting shut out of the category.
One half of Emily Blunt's future win, for a year in which she went unnominated for two very different lead performances.
Ryan Coogler's future Best Director award, for pulling off a Marvel movie that still feels entirely his own.
Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Oscar Outragewith Micah Peters
Won the Toronto audience award, keeps winning guild prizes, and has drawn real criticism over how it handles Nick Vallelonga's and Don Shirley's stories. Amanda notes a backlash-to-the-backlash among voters annoyed at being told not to like it.
Trailed by Bryan Singer's exit and disputes over what it gets wrong about Freddie Mercury and Queen, but a box-office hit that keeps winning anyway.
The 30-years-earlier version of the same white-driver, Black-passenger story the hosts say Green Book is still relitigating.
Last year's version of this same argument, over its redemption arc for a racist cop.
Why Does Netflix Want an Oscar?with Chris Ryan and Allison Herman
Alfonso Cuaron's odds-on Best Picture favorite; Netflix even paid to put it in theaters to keep voters comfortable with it.
Netflix's prior Best Documentary Feature win.
Netflix's Best Documentary Short win from a few years back.
Netflix's first serious Best Picture push; it didn't get the nomination.
Cited as the kind of purely commercial hit Netflix will keep making alongside its prestige bids.
Same point: a hit with no awards ambitions.
The Coen brothers' anthology, which picked up three nominations despite not being built as an awards play.
The Jake Gyllenhaal/Dan Gilroy movie released a few weeks after Roma's push, cited as proof Netflix has more prestige-adjacent titles banked for next fall.
The Steven Soderbergh movie released the same window, same point about Netflix's bench.
Predicting Best Picturea walk through preferential balloting, film by film, least to most likely
Broad, across-the-board nominations but polarizing reception and few guild wins; picked as least likely to win.
A dark-horse Best Director case for Spike Lee, but the excitement is about him more than the film's Best Picture chances.
No Best Director or Best Editing nomination, the two things that usually travel with a Best Picture win, though its box office and awards-season press push give it a late, unlikely case.
Tied for the most nominations, and the projected Best Original Screenplay winner, which the hosts read as a sign it's everyone's well-liked third choice rather than anyone's first.
Its SAG Best Ensemble win is the whole case; no directing or acting nominations undercut it.
Went from a zero-chance punchline to a real threat after its Golden Globes win, on the strength of being a crowd-pleasing hit with a Best Actor front-runner in Rami Malek.
Not the box-office hit Bohemian Rhapsody is, but ahead in guild wins, with a dedicated bloc of voters ranking it first or second.
The favorite, and an unusual one: black-and-white, foreign-language, from Netflix, with Cuaron all but locked for Best Director. The worry is that it collects second-place votes without enough firsts.
Also mentioned raised along the way
Oscar history and precedent The Silence of the LambsThe Shape of WaterArgoZero Dark ThirtyNo Country for Old MenThe Bridges of Madison County
Star Wars and franchise lore Star WarsReturn of the JediThe Lord of the Rings: The Return of the KingLogan
Career namedrops Reservoir DogsHeaven Can WaitRedsBrooklynCan You Ever Forgive MeWon't You Be My NeighborIt2001: A Space OdysseyApocalypse Now
Emily Blunt's filmography The Devil Wears PradaSicarioEdge of Tomorrow
Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads
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