Judy 2019
Renée Zellweger's SAG win for this makes her the shakiest of the four acting locks, per Sean and Amanda.
The Big Picture · Discussion · Interview · Rankings
'Parasite' vs. '1917' : The Best Picture Showdown Is Here. Plus: It's Mailbag Time | The Oscars Show
January 21, 2020/ 80 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins
SAG hands Best Ensemble to Parasite and shuts out Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Irishman; 1917 takes the PGA anyway and still looks like the frontrunner. Plus: Shea Serrano stops by for Bad Boys for Life, and a mailbag that reaches back to 1938.
124 films across 11 segments.
AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.
Tea Leaves: SAG, the PGAs, and the Parasite-1917 Showdownreading the weekend's guild results
Parasite 2019
Upset winner of the SAG Best Ensemble award; Amanda calls it her favorite film of the year.
1917 2019
Won the PGA Award. No screenplay or acting nominations and no editing nod, which historically doesn't square with being the Best Picture frontrunner - and yet.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2019
Went into SAG with frontrunner buzz for Best Ensemble and lost, then also lost the Ace Eddie editing prize.
The Irishman 2019
Also shut out of Best Ensemble; ten nominations total with a real chance of winning nothing.
Little Women 2019
Wasn't even nominated for the SAG ensemble award.
Marriage Story 2019
Also absent from the Best Ensemble field.
Green Book 2018
Cited as precedent: last year's Best Picture winner wasn't nominated for the SAG ensemble either.
The Shape of Water 2017
"The giant fish movie" - same precedent, a Best Picture winner with no SAG ensemble nod.
Slumdog Millionaire 2008
Scott Feinberg's comp for a film that swept the back half of a season on momentum with no acting noms.
Bohemian Rhapsody 2018
Won the Ace Eddie editing award last year en route to its Best Picture-adjacent Oscar win - an odd precedent Sean calls "preposterous."
Jojo Rabbit 2019
Tom Eagles won the Ace Eddie for comedy/musical editing, upsetting Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
Stock Up, Stock Downwith Shea Serrano
Shea Serrano on
Bad Boys for Life 2020
Shockingly good, per all three; the fan-service moment in the first ten minutes gets near-cheering.
Shea Serrano on
6 Underground 2019
Reference point for Michael Bay's Netflix output, called back to by Shea's prior listening.
Ranking the Bad Boys TrilogySean, Amanda, and Shea all land in the same order
No. 3
Bad Boys for Life 2020
No. 3, though no disrespect intended - Sean and Amanda both liked it a lot.
The Bad Boys for Life Six Degrees Detourwith Shea Serrano
Gemini Man 2019
Amanda didn't love it, but all three agree the action sequences are terrific.
Hunter Killer 2018
Jacob Scipio has a tiny role - one node in Shea's web of recurring actors.
All About Nina 2018
Common co-stars here, connecting the web back to Kate del Castillo.
El Chicano 2019
"Basically Mexican Batman" - not a good movie, but Kate del Castillo's fiery finale cameo is the highlight.
Suicide Squad 2016
Common and Will Smith co-starred here too.
Mailbag: Ranking the Best Picture Discourseworst potential discourse first, per JubJub's question
No. 3
Little Women 2019
Amanda's next pick - not a fun discourse, despite her being thrilled if it won.
No. 4
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2019
Still plenty of people unhappy with the film's ending and its violence.
Mailbag: The Best (and Worst) Best Picture Lineups Evera reader asks for the strongest year top to bottom
One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest 1975
Part of the 1975 field both hosts call "unassailable" - five for five.
Barry Lyndon 1975
Dog Day Afternoon 1975
Jaws 1975
Nashville 1975
The Deer Hunter 1978
1978 field.
Coming Home 1978
Heaven Can Wait 1978
Midnight Express 1978
An Unmarried Woman 1978
Kramer vs. Kramer 1979
1979 field.
All That Jazz 1979
Apocalypse Now 1979
Breaking Away 1979
Norma Rae 1979
Rocky 1976
1976 field, Amanda's addition - four of five are all-timers.
Bound for Glory 1976
Network 1976
Taxi Driver 1976
The Lost Weekend 1945
Sean's 1945 pick - Sinatra, Bing Crosby, Wilder, and Hitchcock all represented.
Anchors Aweigh 1945
Mildred Pierce 1945
Spellbound 1945
Schindler's List 1993
Amanda's 1993 shortlist pick.
The Fugitive 1993
The Piano 1993
Forrest Gump 1994
1994, Sean's pick despite the Best Picture win being one of his own reversal targets.
Pulp Fiction 1994
Quiz Show 1994
The Artist 2011
Winner of the field both hosts call famously weak - maybe three of nine nominees worthy of the conversation.
The Descendants 2011
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close 2011
Called a disaster.
The Help 2011
A movie Sean says he doesn't like.
Hugo 2011
One of Sean's three least favorite Scorsese films.
Midnight in Paris 2011
Moneyball 2011
Both hosts love this one, and feel it's overlooked.
The Tree of Life 2011
War Horse 2011
Called "eminently forgettable."
The Post 2017
2017 field - the other contender for best-ever alongside 1975.
Darkest Hour 2017
Call Me by Your Name 2017
Amanda loved it; Sean says he's not as high on it as most of their generation.
Dunkirk 2017
Get Out 2017
Lady Bird 2017
Phantom Thread 2017
Mailbag: The Greatest Movies to Never Win Best Picturereader Godfather's list, plus Sean and Amanda's personal picks
Bringing Up Baby 1938
His Girl Friday 1940
Heat 1995
A Man Escaped 1956
In the Mood for Love 2000
The Long Goodbye 1973
The Searchers 1956
The Shining 1980
Touch of Evil 1958
The Third Man 1949
Sean's personal pick - his favorite movie of all time.
Singin' in the Rain 1952
Amanda's personal pick.
Miller's Crossing 1990
Sean's Coen brothers pick - "should have won."
The Big Lebowski 1998
Same category - should have won, per Sean.
The Social Network 2010
Both hosts bring this up constantly as one that should have won.
Mailbag: Oscar History's Great Travestieswhat would you go back and change
Forrest Gump 1994
Sean's number one reversal - Gump beating Pulp Fiction is "no bueno," even though he likes Gump.
Pulp Fiction 1994
The film Sean would hand the win to instead.
The Godfather Part II 1974
Not the Best Picture race - the travesty is Art Carney winning Best Actor over Al Pacino's work here.
The King's Speech 2010
"The trademark of this podcast" - beat The Social Network, which Sean still calls terrible.
When Harry Met Sally... 1989
Nora Ephron's screenplay nomination - Amanda's pick for the win she should have had.
Do the Right Thing 1989
Spike Lee wasn't even nominated for Best Director the year of When Harry Met Sally - the real travesty, per Amanda.
Sleepless in Seattle 1993
Ephron's other screenplay nomination that didn't win.
Mailbag: Performances With No Shot at a Nomination
Us 2019
Winston Duke's work, overshadowed by Lupita Nyong'o's bigger, more central performance.
Spenser Confidential 2020
Peter Berg's Mark Wahlberg vehicle - Winston Duke plays the sidekick.
Midsommar 2019
Florence Pugh's performance - great, but not a film the Academy could ever get on the same wavelength with.
The Souvenir 2019
Honor Swinton Byrne, Sean's "obvious" pick.
Plus One 2019
Maya Erskine - a comedy performance Sean says has stuck with him all year.
The Last Black Man in San Francisco 2019
Jonathan Majors, called a great pick by Amanda.
Mailbag: Why Does the Academy Hate A24?responding to a reader's straw man
Moonlight 2016
The counterargument - it won Best Picture, so the premise is false.
Uncut Gems 2019
"Not an Academy movie" - too provocative for older voters, per Sean.
The Last Black Man in San Francisco 2019
Cited again as too independent for the Academy.
The Farewell 2019
Same case.
First Reformed 2017
Sean's "beloved" example from last year that also went unrecognized.
Mailbag: Grab Bagone wins, parlays, and reversing the sketch-not-blueprint problem
Ford v Ferrari 2019
Sean thinks it would have fared better at the Oscars if the Fox-Disney merger hadn't gutted its awards campaign apparatus.
The Lighthouse 2019
Sean namechecks cinematographer Jarin Blaschke as a win he'd want but isn't campaigning for.
Black Widow 2020
Cited as Florence Pugh's next big swing after Little Women.
Dune 2021
Timothée Chalamet's next major awards-adjacent swing, expected "later this year" at the time of taping before its pandemic delay.
Lady Macbeth 2016
Part of Florence Pugh's run of lead performances discussed in the Chalamet/Pugh/Ronan Oscar-parlay question.
Fighting with My Family 2019
Same Pugh filmography discussion.
The Revenant 2015
Leo's prior Best Actor win, cited as the reason his Once Upon a Time in Hollywood chances are considered slim.
Birdman 2014
Hypothetical: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would've beaten it in a head-to-head, Sean argues.
Oliver! 1968
Cited as proof the Oscars are "a sketch in pencil" - calling it the best film of 1968 makes you "a buffoon."
2001: A Space Odyssey 1968
The film Sean says should have been considered the best of that year instead.
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