The Big Picture · Awards
Oscar Predictions: Who Will and Should Win at the Academy Awards
March 9, 2023/ 110 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins
Days before the 95th Academy Awards, Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins predict all 23 categories, will-win and should-win, with producer Bobby Wagner along for a prop-bet warm-up: Oscar runtime over/unders, how many times the show will reference last year's slap, and whether Tom Cruise takes the front row. Everything Everywhere All at Once is the near-unanimous Best Picture call, with All Quiet on the Western Front named the dark horse. They split on two will-win picks, Best Actor (Fennessey takes Brendan Fraser, Dobbins Austin Butler) and Best Original Score (Babylon vs. All Quiet), and the should-win picks lean hard on Tár. Recorded before the ceremony.
120 films across 1 segment.
AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.
Who Will Win and Should Winall 23 categories · recorded before the show
Best Documentary Short
Best Live Action Short
- An Irish Goodbye
- Ivalu
- Le Pupille Their pick
- Night Ride
- The Red Suitcase
Best Animated Short
Best Costume Design
- Babylon Mary Zophres
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Ruth Carter
- Elvis Catherine Martin Their pick
- Everything Everywhere All at Once Shirley Kurata
- Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris Jenny Beavan
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Visual Effects
Best Production Design
- All Quiet on the Western Front Christian M. Goldbeck, Ernestine Hipper
- Avatar: The Way of Water Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, Vanessa Cole
- Babylon Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino Their pick
- Elvis Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn
- The Fabelmans Rick Carter, Karen O'Hara
Best Sound
Best Original Score
- All Quiet on the Western Front Volker Bertelmann
- Babylon Justin Hurwitz Their pick
- The Banshees of Inisherin Carter Burwell
- Everything Everywhere All at Once Son Lux
- The Fabelmans John Williams
Best Original Song
- Applause Tell It Like a Woman
- Hold My Hand Top Gun: Maverick
- Lift Me Up Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Naatu Naatu RRR Their pick
- This Is a Life Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Animated Feature
Best International Feature
Best Documentary Feature
Best Film Editing
- The Banshees of Inisherin Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
- Elvis Matt Villa, Jonathan Redmond
- Everything Everywhere All at Once Paul Rogers Their pick
- Tár Monika Willi
- Top Gun: Maverick Eddie Hamilton
Best Cinematography
- All Quiet on the Western Front James Friend Their pick
- Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths Darius Khondji
- Elvis Mandy Walker
- Empire of Light Roger Deakins
- Tár Florian Hoffmeister
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Supporting Actor
- The Banshees of Inisherin Brendan Gleeson
- Causeway Brian Tyree Henry
- The Fabelmans Judd Hirsch
- The Banshees of Inisherin Barry Keoghan
- Everything Everywhere All at Once Ke Huy Quan Their pick
Best Supporting Actress
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Angela Bassett
- The Whale Hong Chau
- The Banshees of Inisherin Kerry Condon
- Everything Everywhere All at Once Jamie Lee Curtis Their pick
- Everything Everywhere All at Once Stephanie Hsu Their pick
Best Actor
- Elvis Austin Butler
- The Banshees of Inisherin Colin Farrell
- The Whale Brendan Fraser Their pick
- Aftersun Paul Mescal
- Living Bill Nighy
Best Actress
- Tár Cate Blanchett
- Blonde Ana de Armas
- To Leslie Andrea Riseborough
- The Fabelmans Michelle Williams
- Everything Everywhere All at Once Michelle Yeoh Their pick
Best Director
- The Banshees of Inisherin Martin McDonagh
- Everything Everywhere All at Once Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert Their pick
- The Fabelmans Steven Spielberg
- Tár Todd Field
- Triangle of Sadness Ruben Östlund
Also mentioned raised along the way
The rewatchables detour Catch Me If You CanBigTop Gun
Oscar history they invoked The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the KingSlumdog MillionaireThe ArtistThe Silence of the LambsBlack Panther
In the banter The PurgeMen in BlackShrekPuss in BootsApollo 10½Happy as LazzaroThe LighthouseLa La LandFirst ManIcarusMy Octopus TeacherThe MatrixDecision to LeaveSpiritedThe Dark Knight RisesJohn Wick: Chapter 4The Shape of WaterTrue LiesTrading PlacesCasablancaThe Godfather
Behind the song nominees RRRTell It Like a Woman
Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads
TV Daisy Jones & the Six
Podcasts The TownThe RewatchablesThe WatchWTF with Marc MaronWhat About Your FriendsThe Ringer Dish
Games FIFA World Cup Launch Edition
Ads FanDuelBoar's HeadNetflixNOS EnergyCarvana