Jojo Rabbit 2019
Taika Waititi's 'anti-hate satire' took Toronto's Audience Award despite a 49 Metacritic. It's the most divisive winner of a prize that almost always predicts a Best Picture nominee.
The Big Picture · Discussion · Interview
Oscar Bait Reborn: 'Hustlers' Cashes In, 'The Goldfinch' Flops Hard, and 'Jojo Rabbit' Hops into the Best Picture Race | The Oscars Show
September 17, 2019/ 110 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins
A post-festival Oscar check-in: Jojo Rabbit takes the TIFF Audience Award, Hustlers overperforms, The Goldfinch bombs, then a too-early Best Picture board and Matt Tyrnauer on his Roy Cohn doc.
79 films across 5 segments.
AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.
The Oscar Race After the FestivalsJojo Rabbit wins the TIFF Audience Award
Green Book 2018
A recent Audience Award winner Sean cites as the template for a crowd-pleaser that rides Toronto straight to the Oscars.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2017
The 2017 Toronto winner, part of the run of divisive audience picks.
La La Land 2016
Won the Audience Award 'for a reason': the kind of movie Toronto crowds reward.
Room 2015
The Imitation Game 2014
12 Years a Slave 2013
Where Do We Go Now? 2011
Nadine Labaki's film, the last Audience Award winner (2011) that missed a Best Picture nomination.
Thor: Ragnarok 2017
Cited as proof Waititi is a real filmmaker before Jojo.
Hunt for the Wilderpeople 2016
The Waititi film Sean names as evidence of his range.
Bohemian Rhapsody 2018
The only recent case of a critically pummeled film riding straight onto the Oscar conveyor belt, the precedent Jojo would follow.
Marriage Story 2019
A Toronto runner-up and, with Parasite, one of the two best-reviewed films of the festival season; a near-lock for Best Picture.
Parasite 2019
The other runner-up; the wave of positivity around it is unusual for a subtitled genre film.
If Beale Street Could Talk 2018
A prior-year runner-up that landed a Best Picture nomination.
Roma 2018
The other 2018 runner-up that went on to multiple nominations and wins.
Call Me by Your Name 2017
Moonlight 2016
Emerged from Telluride and won; the open question is whether it was the exception or the new order.
The Shape of Water 2017
Grouped with Three Billboards and Green Book as the possible 'new reality' of Oscar winners.
Stock Up: 'Hustlers'a $33M opening and a J.Lo awards case
Hustlers 2019
Lorene Scafaria's adaptation of Jessica Pressler's New York magazine story opened to $33M, huge for a starless-IP mid-budget drama; 65% of the audience was women. Sean reads it as a friendship rom-com in crime-movie clothes, carried by Jennifer Lopez's Ramona.
Goodfellas 1990
Sean's running bit: 'Hustlers 2' is just Goodfellas with an all-male stripper cast, him as Henry Hill's son.
Magic Mike XXL 2015
Amanda's guess for what the all-male 'Hustlers 2' would actually be.
Argo 2012
Cited as the rare case of magazine journalism making a good movie, a comparison for Hustlers' adapted-screenplay odds.
Stock Down: 'The Goldfinch'the biggest bomb of the year
The Goldfinch 2019
John Crowley's adaptation of Donna Tartt's Pulitzer novel made $2.5M on 2,500 screens. Shot by Roger Deakins, but too episodic and inert; both hosts land on 'they had an idea and it just didn't work.'
Where'd You Go, Bernadette 2019
The 'good effort, admirable failure' literary adaptation Amanda hoped The Goldfinch would at least match.
The Souvenir 2019
Sean's counter-example: a film that can under-share and still work, which a plot-heavy book like this can't.
Brooklyn 2015
The earlier John Crowley film that makes The Goldfinch's failure more surprising.
Anna Karenina 2012
Joe Wright's adaptation, offered as proof a thousand-page book can be adapted with a real vision of scale.
It 2017
The first chapter works better than The Goldfinch at the same flip-back-and-forth structure.
It Chapter Two 2019
The other half of the Stephen King adaptation whose childhood/adulthood cross-cutting Sean compares to The Goldfinch's.
Too-Early Best Picture PredictionsSean's unsupportable red/green board
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2019
The only 'lock' on the board that has actually been released; the Sharon Tate role is the quiet flip side of J.Lo's Ramona.
Joker 2019
The diciest of the contenders: split reception out of Venice and Toronto, already lost to the culture war, but tipped to be 'the Venom of this season.'
The Irishman 2019
Unseen, heading to the New York Film Festival in two weeks, but a Scorsese movie. Advertised during the last Oscars with the 'in theaters and on Netflix' spot.
Ford v Ferrari 2019
One of the contenders Sean feels strongest about out of the festivals.
The Two Popes 2019
Little Women 2019
In the 'green / slow down' tier: unseen, Christmas-dated, a Greta Gerwig adaptation trading on old Oscar timing.
1917 2019
The other green pick: Sam Mendes and Roger Deakins doing a WWI one-take war movie. If voters fell over themselves for Birdman, what happens here?
A Hidden Life 2019
Terrence Malick, on the long doubtful list.
The Farewell 2019
The 'Instagram indie movie,' marketed straight at Amanda; some prognosticators (Scott Feinberg) have it in the mix, though Sean is dubious.
The Peanut Butter Falcon 2019
The 'Facebook indie movie,' a $15M word-of-mouth hit with a similar profile to The Farewell but less cultural cache.
The Last Black Man in San Francisco 2019
Grouped with The Farewell as an indie that did decent business this year.
The Lighthouse 2019
Sean's 'TikTok movie' / old-parchment-and-quill pick; Amanda counters that Hustlers is the actual TikTok movie.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 2019
Warm reaction, maybe; one of only two Sony releases in the mix.
Just Mercy 2019
Destin Daniel Cretton's legal drama with Michael B. Jordan, Brie Larson and Jamie Foxx: 'respectful,' which isn't what you want out of a festival.
Us 2019
Came out this year; Amanda liked it but neither expects it in the awards mix.
The Report 2019
A respectful festival reception since Sundance; the Annette Bening vehicle in the supporting-actress conversation.
The Lion King 2019
'A movie with a bad story,' as discussed previously on the show.
Ad Astra 2019
On the doubtful list: maybe too meditative for the Academy; teased with a James Gray interview later that week.
Waves 2019
Strong early reviews, negative pans out of TIFF; could be a box-office hit like The Farewell more than an Oscar movie.
Dolemite Is My Name 2019
Warmly received; Eddie Murphy will get a Golden Globe nod and campaign on SNL, but it's not a Best Picture thing.
Uncut Gems 2019
'It'd be amazing' if it reached the Best Picture race. Sean doesn't see it happening.
The Laundromat 2019
The Aeronauts 2019
Motherless Brooklyn 2019
Booksmart 2019
'Remember Booksmart?' Fondly named, not seen as happening.
Rocketman 2019
Honey Boy 2019
Toy Story 4 2019
Avengers: Endgame 2019
The running Thanos bit: 'Thanos will be nominated for Best Supporting Thanos.'
The Good Liar 2019
Unseen Warner Bros. drama with Ian McKellen and Judi Dench; 'feels like an Amanda movie.'
Knives Out 2019
Extremely well received at TIFF; probably not an Oscar movie, but everyone's excited.
Gemini Man 2019
The Ang Lee / Will Smith movie coming in five weeks.
Judy 2019
Renee Zellweger a lock for Best Actress; the movie is not.
Harriet 2019
Dark Waters 2019
Todd Haynes legal drama that might threaten Just Mercy's acknowledgement, on the 'unknown' tier.
Queen & Slim 2019
Melina Matsoukas' film from a Lena Waithe / James Frey story, with Daniel Kaluuya.
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 2019
Named for Adam Driver: 'that guy just might be Pacino.'
Cats 2019
'It's only September' and everyone keeps making Amanda consider Cats; floated for a full musical episode.
Bombshell 2019
The Fox News film with Charlize Theron, 'new Oscar bait,' the self-identity way in.
The Banker 2019
Apple's George Nolfi true story with Samuel L. Jackson, Anthony Mackie and Nicholas Hoult: the test of whether Apple TV+ can platform an Oscar movie.
Matt Tyrnauer on 'Where's My Roy Cohn?'
Matt Tyrnauer on
Where's My Roy Cohn? 2019
Tyrnauer's documentary on the McCarthy counsel turned Trump mentor, built as a film noir: the story of a closeted gay power broker and 'the whole point,' the hypocrisy of the Lavender Scare.
Matt Tyrnauer on
Studio 54 2018
His prior doc, where the Cohn idea was born: Cohn was the club's lawyer and a denizen. On Netflix.
Matt Tyrnauer on
Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood 2018
Mostly cinéma vérité; the Scotty Bowers gas-station-brothel story he spent years chasing and defends as fully cross-checked truth.
Matt Tyrnauer on
Grey Gardens 1975
The Maysles landmark he names as a major influence, and a hero of American direct cinema.
Matt Tyrnauer on
Hustle 1975
An obscure Robert Aldrich color noir with Burt Reynolds and Catherine Deneuve: the brown-and-Bushmills palette he borrowed for the Cohn film.
Matt Tyrnauer on
Kiss Me Deadly 1955
The Aldrich noir that ends in a nuclear explosion, Tyrnauer's 'five gold stars' example of noir nihilism.
Matt Tyrnauer on
White Heat 1949
The Cagney film that ends with the refinery going up in flames: the conflagration he ties to Cohn and Trump.
Matt Tyrnauer on
Green for Danger 1946
Sidney Gilliat's British noir, a Criterion title, and Tyrnauer's answer for the last great thing he's seen.
Also mentioned raised along the way
In passing American BeautyBirdmanElectionThe Adjustment BureauVenomBlack PantherBride of Frankenstein
Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads
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