The Big Picture · Discussion
April 29, 2020/ 74 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins
An emergency mailbag: the AMC-Universal standoff over Trolls World Tour's VOD numbers, then the Academy's pandemic rule change that lets streaming movies qualify for the Oscars.
22 films across 2 segments.
AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.
The AMC–Universal Fightwindowing goes public
The $19.99 rental that started it: 5 million-plus rentals, $100M-plus in a month. Universal's Jeff Shell spun the numbers to the Wall Street Journal; AMC's Adam Aron wrote back that AMC would stop licensing Universal films in its ~1,000 theaters.
The 2016 original made $300M-plus worldwide; the sequel's numbers were domestic-only, so both sides quote the figures that flatter them.
Judd Apatow's Pete Davidson movie, another Universal release, still headed to VOD in June. A harder sell than Trolls: no franchise, barely any marketing, and Apatow joked it wouldn't turn a profit.
One of the first three Universal titles pushed to VOD at $19.99 after a short theatrical run.
Same $19.99 early-VOD batch; Jason Blum defended the move on Bill Simmons's podcast.
Also cut short in theaters and sent to VOD.
Warner Bros. moved it to May 15, the kind of easy-to-sell kids' title that suits VOD.
A misbegotten Disney project that found a home straight on Disney+.
Amanda's example of the adult comedy that underperforms theatrically because people would rather wait to watch it at home.
The kind of kids' movie parents used to buy on iTunes to rewatch. Now it just goes straight to Disney+.
The Oscar-Rules Mailbagwith producer Bobby Wagner
The recurring test case: Fincher's black-and-white Mankiewicz drama, written by his late father, inspired partly by Pauline Kael's 'Raising Kane.' Neither host expects Netflix to move it off its late-fall date. Release timing still wins Oscars.
Wes Anderson's Cannes title, owned by Disney via Fox Searchlight. Disney hasn't shown any appetite for the VOD pivot, so don't expect it early.
A24 stayed silent, keeping a May 29 date while pushing everything else, making it the wildcard of the bunch.
Christopher Nolan's Warner Bros. movie was meant to reopen theaters July 17; Nolan was reportedly unhappy about AT&T's 'rethinking our theatrical model' talk.
Both hosts' pick for the best movie released on VOD during quarantine, and their answer to what they'd want to win Best Picture.
Spielberg's musical was a presumed contender, but nobody knows if it's even out of post-production.
Cited as a campaign that peaked too soon, a caution about how streaming movies burn attention.
Positioned as a theatrical release, part of why its campaign landed with voters.
Another Netflix title sold on its theatrical bona fides.
Sean's theory: its stray nominations came from voters happily sampling segments on Netflix, or just loving the Coens.
Ron Howard's Netflix adaptation: 'makes my brain bleed,' but pure Oscar bait.
The show's cause célèbre: France submitted Les Misérables instead, so it missed the international race. Neon's tiny December LA run made it last year's film. Sean's message to critics of the show's 'Portrait won Best Picture' bit: 'Fuck off.'
Also mentioned raised along the way
Oscar-history touchstones ParasiteGreen BookNo Country for Old MenThere Will Be BloodThe Social NetworkThe King's SpeechCitizen KaneThe Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonLes MisérablesThe Two PopesMinariBoys State
Sean's quarantine watchlist The Great MomentLaw Abiding CitizenTwilight Zone: The Movie
Postponed and undated The New MutantsPromising Young WomanBad TripThe High NoteRunMilitary WivesGreyhoundMalignant
In passing F9Bad Boys for LifeOnwardNo Time to DieLet Them All TalkFree GuySpenser ConfidentialJohn Wick
Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads
TV The Mandalorian30 RockSaturday Night LiveCursed
Ads World Central KitchenTV Concierge (podcast)