The Big Picture · Discussion · Awards · Interview

Eleven Reckless Oscar Predictions. Plus: Bong Joon-ho! | The Oscars Show

October 29, 2019/ 101 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins

Sean and Amanda open awards season with the Gotham nominees, a chaotic Little Women screening, and Robert Evans, then make early, hedged predictions in six Oscar categories. Sean closes with Bong Joon-ho, through translator Sharon Choi, on Parasite.

75 films across 3 segments.

AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.

The Big Raceawards season opens

The Farewell 2019

Gotham Best Feature nominee; the field's best long-shot for a Best Picture slot, carried by Lulu Wang's campaigning.

Uncut Gems 2019

Safdie Brothers, Gotham Best Feature. Sean thinks older voters get strafed by it and keep Adam Sandler out of Best Actor.

Waves 2019

Trey Edward Shults, Gotham Best Feature. Sterling K. Brown wowed them but the movie may be too small to land nominations.

Marriage Story 2019

Noah Baumbach; Amanda calls it a near-lock for Best Picture.

Hustlers 2019

Its Gotham Best Feature slot means people take it as a capital-F film, though Jennifer Lopez went unnominated there.

The Last Black Man in San Francisco poster

The Last Black Man in San Francisco 2019

Joe Talbot up for the Gotham breakthrough-director award.

Booksmart 2019

Olivia Wilde in the same Gotham breakthrough-director field.

Burning Cane 2019

Phillip Youmans, Gotham breakthrough director; unreleased and unseen by either host.

High Flying Bird 2019

Andre Holland's Gotham acting nod, the kind of pick Sean says won't survive to the Oscars.

Diane 2018

Mary Kay Place, Gotham Best Actress: a critics'-list performance.

Her Smell 2018

Elisabeth Moss, Gotham Best Actress; Sean keeps meaning to see it.

The Irishman 2019

They saw it the week before; the closing pitch is to catch it in a theater before Netflix on Nov. 27.

Knives Out 2019

Loved it, but they don't expect it in the awards conversation.

Little Women 2019

Greta Gerwig's version; a near-brawl over seats at the DGA screening read as real enthusiasm, and the hopeful ending is the kind the Oscars have rewarded lately.

1917 2019

Sam Mendes, shot by Roger Deakins; unseen, screening late (~Nov. 23), the wild card scrawled with 20 question marks on Amanda's sheet.

Richard Jewell 2019

Clint Eastwood's Atlanta-bombing film, unseen; a possible late entry for Paul Walter Hauser.

Cats 2019

Unseen. Sean lists it; Amanda is mad about it.

Dark Waters 2019

Unseen, just starting to screen.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 2019

Unseen; Sean read box-office prognostication tracking it as the lowest-opening episode so far.

Frozen II 2019

Amanda's likely animated contender.

Clemency 2019

Alfre Woodard, one of two death-row films this year; strong Sundance reviews.

Just Mercy 2019

The other death-row film; Jamie Foxx in the supporting mix.

Joker 2019

The biggest R-rated movie ever at the time; a Scott Feinberg voter survey had roughly half moved by it and few outright against it.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2019

Tarantino; the revisionist happy ending fits the hopeful mood they see rewarded this year.

Jesus Is King 2019

Kanye West's IMAX film; Sean, a longtime chronicler, still hadn't watched it (his read on how far Kanye has drifted from the culture's center).

Eleven Reckless Oscar Predictionssix categories, two ballots, splits marked

Best Supporting Actor

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Brad Pitt
The Irishman Al Pacino
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Tom Hanks
The Two Popes Anthony Hopkins
Just Mercy Jamie Foxx
The Irishman Joe Pesci

Best Supporting Actress

Marriage Story Laura Dern
Hustlers Jennifer Lopez
The Report Annette Bening
Bombshell Margot Robbie
Little Women Florence Pugh
The Farewell Zhao Shuzhen

Best Actor

Marriage Story Adam Driver
Joker Joaquin Phoenix
The Irishman Robert De Niro
Pain and Glory Antonio Banderas
The Two Popes Jonathan Pryce
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Leonardo DiCaprio
Dolemite Is My Name Eddie Murphy

Best Actress

Judy Renée Zellweger Their pick
Marriage Story Scarlett Johansson
Bombshell Charlize Theron
Little Women Saoirse Ronan
The Farewell Awkwafina

Best Director

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Quentin Tarantino Their pick
The Irishman Martin Scorsese
Marriage Story Noah Baumbach
Parasite Bong Joon-ho
Little Women Greta Gerwig

Best Picture

Bong Joon-ho on ‘Parasite’through translator Sharon Choi

Bong Joon-ho on

Parasite 2019

Agreed to before Okja; he wanted Korean actors and a story grounded in Korea's reality. He calls it his staircase movie: the scholar's stone that gets announced as 'metaphorical' is the thing that ends up cracking a skull, because we never get crushed by metaphors. Only 10-15% shot on location; the flooded poor neighborhood was built in a water tank.