A Star Is Born 2018
The starry, blockbuster-adjacent frontrunner. Sean floats it sweeping across the board: it flatters what voters want and takes no work to love, the same thing they said about La La Land.
The Big Picture · Discussion
Do the Oscars Need 'Star' Power—and 'Black Panther'—to Thrive? | The Oscars Show (Ep. 102)
November 27, 2018/ 59 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins
Sean and Amanda open the weekly Oscars show by asking whether a race led by small arthouse films leaves the show short on stars, then work through Green Book and Widows, a loaded Best Actress field, and the critics' awards and Golden Globe nominations coming next week.
18 films across 4 segments.
AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.
Do the Oscars Need Star Power?the frontrunners and the fear of a small-movie race
Black Panther 2018
Sean is fairly certain it gets nominated and thinks that's enough; expects it to be a happy-to-be-here nominee rather than a winner. The hosts reject the idea that a Black Panther win is what would save the Oscars.
The Favourite 2018
First of the arthouse contenders to open. Amanda pitches it as the rare period piece that's actually funny and watchable, a movie about Queen Anne that plays weirder than it looks.
Roma 2018
Out December 14 on Netflix. A foreign film with subtitles that voters watch at home on second screens, designed for the home yet best on a big screen. Sean makes the case for it as the race's real frontrunner; the Netflix fight cuts both ways.
If Beale Street Could Talk 2018
Barry Jenkins's Baldwin adaptation, also December 14. A quiet, intimate film like Moonlight, but the late release leaves no time to build the evangelizing long tail Moonlight had.
Stock Up, Stock Downtwo contenders that stumbled at the box office
Green Book 2018
The presumed crowd-pleaser that didn't please the crowds over Thanksgiving and drew fire as a white-savior story made by white filmmakers. The hosts expect a Golden Globe bump (it runs as a comedy) and note Don Shirley's family disputing the film's accuracy.
Widows 2018
Steve McQueen's stacked heist film underperformed at about $15M on a $40M budget. The theory: it didn't lean into the pulp, playing the heist as messy and real when audiences wanted Ocean's Eleven, and a fragmented, grim poster that mismarketed it.
The Best Actress Raceloaded for the first time in years
The Wife 2017
Glenn Close has been the favorite since August for a movie almost no one (including the hosts) can find to watch. Sean compares it to Julianne Moore winning for Still Alice: a career prize for a small film.
Can You Ever Forgive Me? 2018
Melissa McCarthy as forger Lee Israel, the comic actor doing something serious. A downbeat character study and a perfect screener movie; Richard E. Grant looks like a Best Supporting Actor lock.
Destroyer 2018
Karyn Kusama's violent Christmas release, another Nicole Kidman transformation with prosthetics. Sean's in the bag for it; suspects Kidman made the rounds too recently to break through.
Boy Erased 2018
Kidman is also strong here, in supporting territory.
Hereditary 2018
Toni Collette's horror performance, which Sean thinks the pop-in-the-screener crowd will never reward.
Mary Queen of Scots 2018
Saoirse Ronan, the most-nominated young actress in decades; Sean doubts she gets in this year.
Wildlife 2018
Carey Mulligan, one of Sean's five favorite performances of the year, in a movie he fears is too small: the old-fashioned nominate-the-actress kind of turn.
A Private War 2018
Rosamund Pike as slain correspondent Marie Colvin. Sean rates it; wonders why Pike never became a bigger thing after Gone Girl.
Ben Is Back 2018
Julia Roberts on the outside looking in. A movie star the hosts are glad to have back, though they've heard mixed things about the film.
Looking Ahead: Critics and Golden Globesnext week's precursors
BlacKkKlansman 2018
A statement pick that keeps persisting: Armie Hammer was campaigning for it on Twitter over the weekend. Where Green Book may fail, this may succeed.
Stan & Ollie 2018
Amanda's dark horse for the weird late-December Globes love that nobody's really seen.
Also mentioned raised along the way
The 2008 crisis they keep circling No Country for Old MenThere Will Be BloodMichael ClaytonAtonementThe Dark Knight
Small-movie precedent MoonlightLa La LandThe Hurt LockerAvatarDeadpoolThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriThe Shape of WaterPhantom ThreadLady BirdDarkest HourDunkirkGet OutThe Danish GirlAmerican Sniper
Still to come ViceMary Poppins Returns
Stock Up, Stock Down asides Driving Miss DaisyOcean's ElevenDen of ThievesFencesCreed IIRalph Breaks the Internet
Best Actress asides BridesmaidsLife of the PartyThe Happytime MurdersStill AliceDangerous LiaisonsAquamanGone GirlPride & Prejudice
Precursor lineup The Florida ProjectCall Me by Your NameSorry to Bother YouChicagoNineInto the WoodsSpider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads
TV The CrownHomecomingBig Little LiesAmerican Horror StoryMindhunter
Ads Winging It with Vince CarterCaavo Control Center