Best Picture Power Rankings. Plus: Is ‘Emilia Pérez’ Really a Front-Runner?

Best Picture Power Rankingsthe top 10 a month before nominations, best-first

No. 1

Anora 2024

No. 1: still the front-runner. Sean called the win out of an August screening; Joanna wonders if it just parks there the way 'Nomadland' did. Neon behind it, strong limited-release business.

No. 2

Conclave 2024

No. 2: the middlebrow mystery making money and memes, with a nod to the U.S. political system. The kind of high-class genre movie Sean keeps saying doesn't get made anymore.

No. 3

The Brutalist 2024

No. 3: Sean and Katie on the hype squad. Three and a half hours with an intermission baked in; a 'Tár'-like film built on one enormous central performance, plus that upside-down Statue of Liberty poster.

No. 4

Emilia Pérez 2024

No. 4: Netflix's all-in bet, taken apart at length in the back half. Sean thinks it's ranked a touch high for how it plays with older and international voters.

No. 5

Wicked 2024

No. 5: where the energy is right now, though Sean isn't sold on it as a front-runner. Part 1 of two, ending on 'Defying Gravity'; escapism and presales carry it, but few musicals this bright have won.

No. 6

Dune: Part Two 2024

No. 6: widely admired and a huge hit, but sci-fi rarely wins Best Picture. Katie's comp is 'Avatar: The Way of Water': nominated where it needed to be, wins mostly below the line.

No. 7

A Real Pain 2024

No. 7: Sean is bullish and confident it gets in; Joanna thinks it's overrated as a Best Picture film even if Kieran Culkin is a lock. Bumped down a slot so Joanna could claim a win.

No. 8

Blitz 2024

No. 8: Katie's hobby horse, a technical achievement with below-the-line and international support, and a strong Saoirse Ronan press run. Sean cooler on it, wrong-footed by the script.

No. 9

Sing Sing 2023

No. 9: Joanna's 'heart vote,' back in after being cut last time. A24's slow-roll reissue strategy, Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, and a formerly incarcerated cast playing themselves: a CODA-style pattern.

No. 10

The Substance 2024

No. 10: Katie's late add for the zeitgeist, in over Nickel Boys. Sean loves it; some Academy voters he texts with 'fucking hate it,' which is a real problem for the No. 8-9-10 ballot slots.

Is ‘Emilia Pérez’ Really a Front-Runner?the back-half deep dive

Emilia Pérez 2024

Jacques Audiard's genre-hopping musical crime saga, loosely based on an opera; won the jury prize and a shared best-actress award at Cannes. Sean calls it a failed but worthwhile experiment carried by Zoe Saldaña, with Selena Gomez the weak link and Carla Sofía Gascón the challenging center. Divisive on social media, but the panel expects a strong nomination haul with few, if any, wins.

Also mentioned raised along the way

Also weighed for the top 10 Nickel BoysSeptember 5The Piano LessonGladiator IIA Complete UnknownNosferatuJuror #2The Room Next DoorThe Wild RobotInside Out 2

Awards-race comps and Oscar history MoonlightLa La LandBarbieOppenheimerNomadlandCODAThe Banshees of InisherinThe WhaleRomaMankMa Rainey's Black BottomTárMarriage StoryGreen BookBohemian RhapsodyCrashHis Three DaughtersThe Zone of InterestSpotlightMillion Dollar BabyLady BirdFord v FerrariToy Story 3Empire of the SunThe Sound of MusicOliver!ChicagoMoulin Rouge!Star WarsPhiladelphiaThe Pelican BriefSicarioThe OutrunHard TruthsBabygirlMariaCrazy Rich AsiansIn the Heights

Jacques Audiard's filmography A ProphetRust and BoneThe Sisters Brothers

The international-feature field The Seed of the Sacred FigAll We Imagine as LightI'm Still Here

Box-office and franchise comps DuneGladiatorTop Gun: MaverickAvatar: The Way of WaterDeadpool & WolverineWonkaMoana 2Red OneThe LighthouseThe Lord of the Rings: The Two TowersThe Lord of the Rings: The Return of the KingMission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads

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