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Best Picture Power Rankings and Brutal Honesty About ‘The Brutalist’

January 31, 2025/ 144 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins · Joanna Robinson

Amanda finally sees 'The Brutalist' and argues it out with Sean, Sean reports back from 'Nosferatu,' and Joanna Robinson joins to power-rank the ten Best Picture nominees a month out from the ceremony.

12 films across 3 segments.

AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.

‘The Brutalist’spoilers throughout

The Brutalist poster

The Brutalist 2024

Amanda's first watch against Sean's third. They circle whether a film this ambitious can be great without landing every beat: Adrien Brody's Laszlo Toth as a near-blameless cipher, Guy Pearce walking off with the movie, Amanda's dislike of Felicity Jones, the Carrara set piece, the rape, the dinner-scene wobble, and the epilogue's Holocaust-memorial reveal. Amanda gave it 4.5 stars; Sean calls it the year's best despite the flaws.

‘Nosferatu’

Nosferatu poster

Nosferatu 2024

Robert Eggers' remake of Murnau's 1922 film. Amanda finds it airtight and sterile, beautiful craft that couldn't keep her awake, though she concedes Lily-Rose Depp's performance is the exception that carries it. Sean, a Witch-era Eggers fan, is stunned it became a $200M-plus hit.

Best Picture Power Rankingswith Joanna Robinson, the second-to-last ranking before the ceremony

The Brutalist poster
No. 1

The Brutalist 2024

New No. 1, up from 4th. Directing/screenplay/editing nods, the misunderstood-male-genius narrative the Academy loves, and likely higher on more ballots than Emilia Pérez. A PGA win would seal it.

Emilia Pérez poster
No. 2

Emilia Pérez 2024

Neck-and-neck for the top, buoyed by the international bloc and Netflix's undivided resources, but the Karla Sofía Gascón tweet scandal has done real damage, and nobody on the panel wants it to win.

Anora poster
No. 3

Anora 2024

Sean's No. 1 film of the year and long the front-runner here. Has directing, screenplay and editing, but thin below-the-line support is the tough beat.

A Complete Unknown poster
No. 4

A Complete Unknown 2024

The old-school nominee, unscathed by the smear season. Eight nominations, Mangold in Director, and an effective Timothée Chalamet campaign vaulted it up the board.

Conclave poster
No. 5

Conclave 2024

The crowd-pleaser and likely screenplay winner, but the Director and Stanley Tucci snubs cap it. A second/third-choice magnet for the 10-8 voters.

The Substance poster
No. 6

The Substance 2024

A body-horror Best Picture nominee is a genre first, something Katie called months early. Too divisive to win, and a Hollywood-about-Hollywood hook that helps at the margins.

Wicked poster
No. 7

Wicked 2024

Craft everywhere but only editing among the bellwethers; no Director or Writing. Last film to win without those was Grand Hotel. Could take SAG on ensemble alone.

Nickel Boys poster
No. 8

Nickel Boys 2024

Its screenplay nod signals real support in a weak category; the RaMell Ross Director snub stung. A film common moviegoers find hard to parse.

I'm Still Here poster
No. 9

I'm Still Here 2024

A Best Picture surprise riding the international vote and Fernanda Torres' Golden Globe. No screenplay, editing or directing, so it sits near the floor.

Dune: Part Two poster
No. 10

Dune: Part Two 2024

Everyone's bottom pick despite a great time at the theater. Big below-the-line presence but no Director, Writing or Editing, and an early-year release voters forget.

Also mentioned raised along the way

In the ‘Brutalist’ conversation Vox LuxThe MasterThe ImmigrantThe PianistThe GodfatherThe Godfather Part IIA Real PainChallengersThe Fall GuyFunny GamesWhite NoiseChinatownThe Social NetworkThe King's SpeechInterstellarOppenheimer

Oscar history and precedent NomadlandMoonlightEverything Everywhere All at OnceParasiteCODAThe Power of the DogMankRomaMariaThe Piano LessonThe IrishmanBirdmanGreen BookTitanicBarbieGrand HotelHidden FiguresSing Sing

Around ‘Nosferatu’ Wolf ManThe WitchHorizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1

Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads

TV Saturday Night Live

Podcasts The Big PictureThe Press BoxHouse of R

Web Johán, Sacre Bleu

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