To Leslie 2022
Riseboro's surprise Best Actress nod and the last-minute social-media campaign that bumped Danielle Deadwyler and Viola Davis. The Academy investigated but let the nomination stand.
The Big Picture · Discussion · Rankings
Best Picture Power Rankings and a Deeply Weird Best Actress Investigation
February 7, 2023/ 88 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins · Joanna Robinson
Sean, Amanda, and Joanna Robinson recap the Andrea Riseboro/To Leslie campaign scandal, weigh two wide-open acting races, and re-rank all ten Best Picture nominees five weeks out from the ceremony.
19 films across 2 segments.
AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.
The Acting Racesbest actress + best actor
Blonde 2022
Ana de Armas's nomination, which the group calls a reward for surviving one of the year's most miserable shoots.
TÁR 2022
Cate Blanchett, the long-standing frontrunner; per the betting markets, the only category TÁR is favored to win.
Everything Everywhere All at Once 2022
Michelle Yeoh, the pick Sean and Joanna are willing to speak into existence over Blanchett.
The Whale 2022
Brendan Fraser's comeback narrative has him at -165 despite no Best Picture nod.
Elvis 2022
Austin Butler; Sean's call to win, the campaign working on everyone but Joanna.
The Banshees of Inisherin 2022
Colin Farrell, the rooting interest Sean and Amanda keep wishcasting.
Aftersun 2022
Paul Mescal, Sean's second-favorite in the category.
Living 2022
Bill Nighy, a career-honor nod everyone finds merely fine.
Best Picture Power Rankingsone last ranking before final predictions
No. 1
Everything Everywhere All at Once 2022
No. 1 - front-runner at -280, and the peg for Sean's theory that genre overload has become the mainstream, the way hip-hop did.
No. 2
The Banshees of Inisherin 2022
No. 2 - the movie nobody seems to dislike; the group waves off the it's-not-really-Irish-enough griping.
No. 3
Top Gun: Maverick 2022
No. 3 - Sean's dark horse, surging to plus-1000; the un-divisive production a lot of voters could rank second or third.
No. 4
The Fabelmans 2022
No. 4 - the most traditional nominee here; that last shot has Amanda half-convinced it wins.
No. 6
All Quiet on the Western Front 2022
No. 6 - the lone Netflix film, with heavy below-the-line support.
No. 7
Elvis 2022
No. 7 - Sean couldn't get through a rewatch; the racial politics go under-discussed.
No. 9
Avatar: The Way of Water 2022
No. 9 - 'Two Towers energy'; no directing nomination for Cameron.
Also mentioned raised along the way
The campaign-history file The WifeJudyThe FighterPrivate PartsGangs of New YorkChicagoThe Hurt LockerAvatarSelmaBohemian RhapsodyThe Iron LadyThe ArtistEmpire of LightTill
Where the Academy's taste keeps landing Green BookParasiteCODANomadlandThe Shape of WaterThe Power of the DogMankRoma1917JokerThe IrishmanJudas and the Black MessiahOut of AfricaBen-HurTerms of Endearment
Best Picture near-miss Babylon
In passing BarbarianHustleGlass Onion: A Knives Out MysteryMaestroDune: Part TwoKnock at the Cabin80 for BradyPuss in Boots: The Last WishMagic Mike's Last Dance9 to 5Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriSeven PsychopathsMr. Holland's OpusLove ActuallyUnderworldApollo 13PhiladelphiaForrest GumpThe Matrix2001: A Space OdysseyAnt-Man and the Wasp: QuantumaniaThe Lord of the Rings: The Two TowersThe Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads
TV The Last of UsGrace and FrankieThe Carrie DiariesTinker Tailor Soldier Spy (BBC)
Games FIFA World Cup Launch Edition
Podcasts The RewatchablesThe TownPrestige TV Podcast
Ads CarvanaBoar's HeadFanDuelNetflixMeta glassesWhite ClawAthletic Brewing