The Big Picture · Discussion · Rankings · Interview

Best Picture Power Rankings: An 'Avatar: The Way of Water' Surge and a Surprise No. 1

January 6, 2023/ 79 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins · Joanna Robinson

Sean, Amanda and Joanna Robinson talk 'Women Talking,' then re-rank the Best Picture race as 'Avatar: The Way of Water' surges and the streaming bump lands 'Banshees' at a shaky No. 1. Plus: Amanda's chat with Sarah Polley.

14 films across 3 segments.

AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.

'Women Talking'With Joanna Robinson

Women Talking 2022

Sarah Polley's adaptation of Miriam Toews's 2018 novel, out in limited release. Eight women from an isolated Mennonite colony debate whether to stay or leave after a series of assaults; the seeming period piece is actually set in 2010. Joanna was riveted; Sean was moved, especially by Claire Foy. Amanda hit the 'it's a play' objection and never fully got past the talkiness or the drained, desaturated Luc Montpellier cinematography. They flag the invented centrality of Ben Whishaw's August as the film's one real flaw, and Rooney Mara as the deliberate light-of-hope.

Best Picture Power Rankingsbest to worst - a live, admittedly toxic re-rank

No. 1

The Banshees of Inisherin 2022

No. 1 on the strength of the HBO Max streaming bump, which all three call a live-needle read rather than a real prediction. Nobody thinks it wins, but the Farrell/Gleeson/Condon/Keoghan acting slate keeps it near the top.

Everything Everywhere All at Once poster

No. 2

Everything Everywhere All at Once 2022

The least divisive film with proven sticking power, riding what Sean calls the best campaign of the year from A24. Only drag: a fan/reply-guy problem that could breed discourse fatigue.

No. 3

TÁR 2022

The high-minded pick the literate branch wants; Scorsese praised it at the New York Film Critics Circle awards. Sean gives it a 0 percent chance to win but happily plants it at three.

No. 4

Elvis 2022

The surge nobody on the podcast can explain, powered by an Austin Butler youth wave. Great fat-Elvis ending buried under long stretches of musician-biopic filler; Amanda refuses to accept it belongs this high.

No. 5

Avatar: The Way of Water 2022

The surge that reshaped the list. A box-office monster gaining daily, up from No. 10 last time; now nobody thinks it misses. Amanda has a physical reaction watching it climb over Top Gun.

No. 6

Top Gun: Maverick 2022

Still a lock to be nominated and a consensus crowd-pleaser, but the Avatar wave knocks it a slot as the two blockbusters jockey.

No. 7

The Fabelmans 2022

A precipitous fall from post-Toronto front-runner to seven, because almost nobody saw it and it never made a pop-culture dent. It's on VOD but not yet on a streaming service, which the group thinks matters.

No. 8

Triangle of Sadness 2022

Joanna's undervalued pick from last time; she's now confident it lands a nomination, especially with international voters. 'The French love Triangle of Sadness.'

No. 9

Babylon 2022

Sean's heart pick, placed at nine after he lobbies for it at No. 1. Two hours of great movie inside a knockout; Amanda and Joanna are cooler, but they see the Academy barely squeaking it in - the year's Nightmare Alley.

No. 10

Women Talking 2022

Barely on the list at 10, a film they think the Academy wants to nominate but keeps kicking down the release calendar. Vulnerable in part because TÁR already occupies its high-minded lane; Frances McDormand's producing muscle is the counter-argument.

Sarah PolleyAmanda's chat with the 'Women Talking' writer-director

Sarah Polley on

Women Talking 2022

Polley on rewriting the rules of the film set with Dee Dee Gardner and Frances McDormand - 10-hour days, everyone home for bedtime - after a three-and-a-half-year concussion made her doubt she could direct again. Miriam Toews's guiding note: don't lose the laughter. She kept the film under 100 minutes so it 'moves like a bullet.'

Sarah Polley on

Stories We Tell 2012

Her last feature before the long gap; the reinvention of documentary form Sean was excited about. After it she raised kids and spent a decade writing - a book, a miniseries, scripts - which made her a far more rigorous, many-drafts screenwriter.

Sarah Polley on

Brother 2022

Polley's last-great-thing pick, Clement Virgo's Canadian film she calls a favorite of the last few years, with performances by Aaron Pierre and Lamar Johnson; she saw it at the Toronto Film Festival to a screaming, weeping standing ovation.

Also mentioned raised along the way

In the running, cut from the 10 Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery The Woman King All Quiet on the Western Front

Compared and cited The Power of the Dog She Said A Few Good Men Knives Out The Wolf of Wall Street La La Land Whiplash Singin' in the Rain Nightmare Alley Phantom Thread Being the Ricardos Parasite Moonlight CODA Bohemian Rhapsody Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo The Girl in the Spider's Web Carnival of Souls Freaks

Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads

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