The Big Picture · Discussion

Are the Oscars in a State of Crisis? | The Oscars Show (Ep. 121)

January 30, 2019/ 57 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins

Sean and Amanda read the tea leaves of the 2019 Oscar race: a confusing SAG night, Netflix's takeover, a floundering telecast, and Roma out front.

51 films across 7 segments.

AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.

The SAG AwardsBest Ensemble and the crowd-pleaser pattern

Black Panther 2018

Won Best Ensemble, its first win from a craft voting body. Fits SAG's habit of rewarding big, showy hits; the hosts still doubt it takes Best Picture, but see it landing third on a lot of preferential ballots.

BlacKkKlansman 2018

The consensus dark horse in a year short on consensus.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri poster

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2017

Prior Best Ensemble winner: showy performances, no Best Picture.

Hidden Figures 2016

Ensemble winner, Best Picture also-ran: the crowd-pleaser lane.

Spotlight 2015

Won ensemble and Best Picture.

Birdman 2014

Won ensemble and Best Picture.

American Hustle 2013

Ensemble winner that missed Best Picture.

Argo 2012

Won ensemble and Best Picture, the Affleck-snub precedent they keep circling back to.

The Help 2011

Ensemble winner, no Best Picture.

The Acting RacesBest Actress, Best Actor, Supporting

The Wife 2017

Glenn Close vehicle they've been dodging on air; she looks to have locked Best Actress on the strength of a full-tilt campaign: speeches, memes, a new Instagram.

The Favourite 2018

Olivia Colman can't work the circuit (she's off shooting The Crown), which helps Close.

Bohemian Rhapsody 2018

Rami Malek won at SAG as the Bryan Singer story broke wide; the hosts split on whether the performance is great or karaoke.

A Star Is Born 2018

Sean's pick, both as film and as Bradley Cooper's directing snub; he'd take Cooper for Best Actor.

Vice 2018

Christian Bale, the once-unknown quantity that came good; Amy Adams didn't win Supporting at SAG, denting her momentum.

The Mule 2018

Clint Eastwood shut out of Best Actor despite a $100M gross.

The Old Man & the Gun 2018

Redford, "the mule but good," per Sean.

At Eternity's Gate 2018

Willem Dafoe, one of the contenders that materialized as predicted.

First Reformed 2018

Schrader's screenplay nod raised false hope for an Ethan Hawke acting nomination that never came.

The Front Runner 2018

Hugh Jackman as Gary Hart, one of the predicted Best Actor front-runners that never materialized.

A Quiet Place 2018

Emily Blunt's surprise Supporting Actress win, more a name-recognition vote than a fine-grained one.

Mary Poppins Returns 2018

Where a Blunt nomination was expected; instead an Oscar pariah with only a handful of nods.

Netflix Runs the Tablethe studio story of the year, plus the stray snubs

Bird Box 2018

The other half of Netflix's win, the meme-machine hit Sean's family wanted to talk about instead of Roma.

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 2018

Three nominations; a movie Amanda loves.

Mudbound 2017

Part of Netflix's four-year prestige build.

Beasts of No Nation 2015

The opening move in that campaign.

Never Look Away 2018

Foreign-film nominee almost no one has seen; its Caleb Deschanel cinematography nod was the biggest "what the fuck" of the season.

The Lives of Others 2006

Director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck's earlier foreign-film winner, the name recall behind Never Look Away's push.

A Telecast in Crisisno host, cut categories, fewer songs

Phantom Thread 2017

Mark Bridges and the jet ski, the kind of moment cutting categories from the live show would kill.

Titanic 1997

Celine-Dion-over-the-credits exhibit A in Amanda's case to abolish Best Original Song.

8 Mile 2002

The Eminem precedent for a recognizable, non-offensive song sweeping in, the frame for the Black Panther single's outside shot.

Stock Up, Stock Down: Romawhy it's the favorite

Roma 2018

Ten nominations, the fewest-leading total since 2015; the hosts read it as top-three on most ballots and push back on the Deadline "virtue signaling" framing: people respond to the filmmaking, not a border-politics vote.