No. 1
Anora 2024
No. 1. Greened on the board from the jump: a Palme d'Or winner with the second-highest per-screen average of the pandemic era ($105K), strong word of mouth, and a breakout Mikey Madison performance.
The Big Picture · Rankings · Discussion · Review · Interview
‘Anora’ Is Pure Cinema and the Best Picture Race Is Completely Up in the Air
October 21, 2024/ 108 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins
Sean ranks a wide-open Best Picture field, then he and Amanda dig into Sean Baker's 'Anora.' Plus: John Crowley on 'We Live in Time.'
28 films across 4 segments.
AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.
The First Best Picture Power Rankings26 contenders, boiled down to 10, best-first
No. 2
Emilia Pérez 2024
No. 2. Could have been No. 1. Jacques Audiard's opera-based musical about a cartel boss, with performances from Karla Sofía Gascón, Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña that Sean thinks the Academy will go for.
No. 3
The Brutalist 2024
No. 3. Well received out of Venice and New York; long, challenging, and full of second-half choices Sean expects to divide voters. A critic's favorite he's seeing twice.
No. 4
Conclave 2024
No. 4. Edward Berger's papal mystery with Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, Isabella Rossellini and John Lithgow. An easy, enjoyable screener, even if Sean doubts anyone thinks hard about its themes.
No. 5
Dune: Part Two 2024
No. 5. Called a lock: the best shot at a blockbuster Best Picture presence, a step up from the first film, and a below-the-line force in effects, costumes, hair and makeup. Villeneuve still owed a director nod.
No. 6
A Real Pain 2024
No. 6. Circled in orange. Jesse Eisenberg's Poland-set film about two cousins, with a Kieran Culkin performance at its center; intimate but big-idea, an 'Ordinary People' kind of Academy movie.
No. 7
Gladiator II 2024
No. 7. The one throwing Sean for a loop. He's seen it and is less sure of it as the Barbie-to-Dune's-Oppenheimer crowd-pleaser than he was; leaning in, but softly. Denzel Washington very much in the race.
No. 8
The Piano Lesson 2024
No. 8. Malcolm Washington's August Wilson adaptation, more cinematic and less claustrophobic than recent Wilson films, with a Danielle Deadwyler performance Sean rates. Netflix is good at nominations.
No. 9
September 5 2024
No. 9. Rock-solid Munich-hostage newsroom drama with John Magaro and Peter Sarsgaard; simple and down-the-middle, but its economy and watchability may get it in.
No. 10
Nickel Boys 2024
No. 10. Pushed to December for awards positioning. A great, divisive film built on an unusual first-person perspective; the structure is why it lands at the bottom of the 10.
The other 16 contendersThe rest of the A-to-Z field that didn't make the 10
All We Imagine as Light 2024
Payal Kapadia's Indian film, not submitted for international feature, which Sean thinks likely dooms its Best Picture push, though a campaign is coming.
Blitz 2024
Steve McQueen's WWII drama with Saoirse Ronan; skipped the festival circuit and drew softer reviews than expected. Apple, opening November 1.
Challengers 2024
Amanda's and Sean's love-triangle tennis comedy; Sean hoped it would level up but worries its tonality and sex are being held against it.
A Complete Unknown 2024
James Mangold's Bob Dylan biopic with Timothée Chalamet, a movie that could mean everything or nothing to Sean. Not in the top tier yet, Christmas release.
Hard Truths 2024
Mike Leigh's new (maybe last) film, with a strong Marianne Jean-Baptiste; a low-level contender Sean sees only on screenplay/acting, if at all.
Here 2024
Robert Zemeckis reuniting with Tom Hanks, Robin Wright and writer Eric Roth for a single-corner-of-the-universe graphic-novel adaptation. Sean is the lone optimist, calling it a boomer parade.
Juror #2 2024
94-year-old Clint Eastwood's theoretical final film, a courtroom drama with Nicholas Hoult and Toni Collette; great trailer, 50-screen release. The Academy loves Clint.
Maria 2024
Pablo Larraín's Maria Callas film, the third in his trilogy of 20th-century women. Sean sees it competing only for Angelina Jolie in Best Actress. Netflix.
Nosferatu 2024
Robert Eggers' vampire retelling, the first of his films not to start with 'The.' Handsomely mounted, possible below-the-line looks, but the Academy rarely rewards horror.
Queer 2024
Luca Guadagnino's Daniel Craig film; Sean finds it too abstract and psychedelic for traditional awards bodies, though Craig's work will draw marks.
The Room Next Door 2024
Pedro Almodóvar's first English-language feature, with Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore; won Venice's Golden Lion but felt slight and lost-in-translation to Sean. Out, for now.
Saturday Night 2024
Jason Reitman's SNL-origins film that hasn't worked at the box office; young audiences don't care, so Sean doesn't see it getting in despite a fun watch.
The Seed of the Sacred Fig 2024
Germany's international entry, a real contender in that race; Sean doubts it has the strength for Best Picture, but 'don't underestimate the international entries.'
Sing Sing 2024
A prison arts-rehabilitation drama that would be a shoo-in most years; Sean can't figure out the rollout and is struggling to see it getting in.
Wicked 2024
The big Wizard-of-Oz-prequel musical Sean admits he doesn't get (his three-year-old does). It's a part one, and part ones never get the look, so he calls it out.
The Wild Robot 2024
Chris Sanders' animated film about parenting, which Sean calls his best. Not a wild-card contender yet, but flagged if some of the field underperforms.
‘Anora’With Amanda Dobbins: spoiler-free, then a spoiler stretch
Anora 2024
Sean Baker's eighth feature and possibly his best: a whirling screwball romance cloaked in a New York thriller, 'if the Safdies did Pretty Woman.' Mikey Madison as Annie opposite Mark Eydelshteyn, with Yura Borisov and Karren Karagulian; a Take That needle-drop, an escalating courtroom set piece, and a wordless final scene the hosts are still chewing on. The bigger, longer, more mainstream Baker, but still dingy, grimy and honest about being broke in America.
‘We Live in Time’In conversation
John Crowley on
We Live in Time 2024
Crowley's shuffled-time romance with Florence Pugh and Andrew Garfield (17 years after 'Boy A'). He talks the birth-scene 'Rubik's cube' that hooked him, refusing to visually tint the three timeframes, Pugh's Marvel schedule freeing up by comical luck, and his ambition for an unashamedly emotional, never sentimental, tearjerker about normal people.
Also mentioned raised along the way
In the ‘Anora’ conversation Pretty WomanUncut GemsRed RocketTangerineThe Florida ProjectAfter HoursMy Cousin VinnyHustlersOnce Upon a Time in HollywoodScreamPoor ThingsSaltburnFair PlayBetter ManMoonlightParasite
Oscar-race touchstones OppenheimerEverything Everywhere All at OnceCODAThe Power of the DogNomadlandAnatomy of a FallBarbieThe Silence of the LambsKillers of the Flower MoonHouse of GucciForrest GumpFlightBlood WorkWalk the LineBohemian RhapsodyThe WitchThe LighthouseThe NorthmanTerrifier 3Lilo & StitchHow to Train Your Dragon
In the John Crowley interview BrooklynThe GoldfinchBoy AIntermissionClosed CircuitIs Anybody There?DunkirkTrafficThunderbolts
Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads
TV Better ThingsThe BachelorLife After Life
Video games Call of Duty
Podcasts 60 Songs That Explain the 90s
Ads Amazon PrimeTremfyaState FarmBoar's HeadWhite ClawMint Mobile