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25 Oscar Predictions That Will Win You Cash

April 22, 2021/ 80 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins

Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins predict all 23 categories three days before the pandemic-year, Steven Soderbergh-produced 93rd Academy Awards. They take the chalk where it's chalk and split on the coin flips - supporting actress, cinematography, film editing, best actress, and a documentary race Amanda refuses to hand to an octopus.

122 films across 2 segments.

AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.

Can the ceremony still matter?Soderbergh's pandemic Oscars, and Searchlight loses Utley and Gulula

1917 2019

The lock that wasn't the year before - a reminder the Academy still surprises.

Parasite 2019

The surprise that beat it, and the reason nobody trusts a chalky year.

Avatar 2009

Its Best Picture race drew the 40-million-viewer ratings the Academy can't get back.

The Hurt Locker 2008

Won that same high-rated night; the contrast the hosts keep measuring against.

Our Oscar Predictionsall 23 categories - who will win

Best Supporting Actress

  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm Maria Bakalova
  • Hillbilly Elegy Glenn Close
  • The Father Olivia Colman
  • Mank Amanda Seyfried
  • Minari Youn Yuh-jung Their pick

Best Supporting Actor

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 Sacha Baron Cohen
  • Judas and the Black Messiah Daniel Kaluuya
  • One Night in Miami Leslie Odom Jr.
  • Sound of Metal Paul Raci
  • Judas and the Black Messiah Lakeith Stanfield

Best Original Song

  • Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga "Husavik"
  • Judas and the Black Messiah "Fight for You"
  • The Life Ahead "Io si (Seen)" - Diane Warren
  • One Night in Miami "Speak Now" - Leslie Odom Jr. Their pick
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 "Hear My Voice"

Best Original Score

  • Da 5 Bloods
  • Mank
  • Minari
  • News of the World
  • Soul Their pick

Best Live Action Short Film

  • Feeling Through
  • The Letter Room
  • The Present
  • Two Distant Strangers Their pick
  • White Eye

Best Animated Short Film

  • Burrow
  • Genius Loci
  • If Anything Happens I Love You Their pick
  • Opera
  • Yes-People

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • Colette
  • A Concerto Is a Conversation
  • Do Not Split
  • Hunger Ward
  • A Love Song for Latasha Their pick

Best Visual Effects

  • Love and Monsters
  • The Midnight Sky
  • Mulan
  • The One and Only Ivan
  • Tenet Their pick

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Emma.
  • Hillbilly Elegy
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Their pick
  • Mank
  • Pinocchio

Best Costume Design

  • Emma.
  • Mank
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Their pick
  • Mulan
  • Pinocchio

Best Production Design

  • The Father
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
  • Mank Their pick
  • News of the World
  • Tenet

Best Sound

  • Greyhound
  • Mank
  • News of the World
  • Sound of Metal Their pick
  • Soul

Best Cinematography

  • Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Mank
  • News of the World
  • Nomadland Their pick
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Film Editing

  • The Father
  • Nomadland
  • Promising Young Woman
  • Sound of Metal Their pick
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Animated Feature

  • Onward
  • Over the Moon
  • A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
  • Soul Their pick
  • Wolfwalkers

Best Documentary Feature

  • Collective
  • Crip Camp
  • The Mole Agent
  • My Octopus Teacher Their pick
  • Time

Best International Feature Film

  • Another Round Their pick
  • Better Days
  • Collective
  • The Man Who Sold His Skin
  • Quo Vadis, Aida?

Best Original Screenplay

  • Judas and the Black Messiah Shaka King, Will Berson, Kenny & Keith Lucas
  • Minari Lee Isaac Chung
  • Promising Young Woman Emerald Fennell Their pick
  • Sound of Metal Darius & Abraham Marder, Derek Cianfrance
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 Aaron Sorkin

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • The Father Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller
  • Nomadland Chloe Zhao Their pick
  • One Night in Miami Kemp Powers
  • The White Tiger Ramin Bahrani

Best Director

  • Another Round Thomas Vinterberg
  • Promising Young Woman Emerald Fennell
  • Mank David Fincher
  • Minari Lee Isaac Chung
  • Nomadland Chloe Zhao Their pick

Best Actress

  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Viola Davis Their pick
  • The United States vs. Billie Holiday Andra Day
  • Pieces of a Woman Vanessa Kirby
  • Nomadland Frances McDormand
  • Promising Young Woman Carey Mulligan

Best Actor

  • Sound of Metal Riz Ahmed
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Chadwick Boseman Their pick
  • The Father Anthony Hopkins
  • Mank Gary Oldman
  • Minari Steven Yeun

Best Picture

  • The Father
  • Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Mank
  • Minari
  • Nomadland Their pick
  • Promising Young Woman
  • Sound of Metal
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

Also mentioned raised along the way

Career-capper comparisons Scent of a WomanAlbert Nobbs

Original-screenplay precedents Get OutManchester by the SeaHerDjango UnchainedJunoGosford Park

In passing CluelessThe Talented Mr. RipleyFord v FerrariThe Empty ManThe Last Black Man in San FranciscoHoneylandGreen BookMoonlightLa La LandGodzilla vs. KongRangoEarly ManChicken Run

Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads

TV The Queen's Gambit

Podcasts and media Marc Maron's WTFEvery Single AlbumThe Ankler

Ads Ringer Dish