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10 Way-Too-Early Oscar Predictions and the Best Movies at Telluride and Venice

September 6, 2023/ 99 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins

Two festival dispatches and a bet on the season. Amanda works her first European fest at the 80th Venice (Campari, boats, reserved seats) and brings back a ranked five. Sean does four days of altitude and tents at Telluride and brings back his own. Then ten way-too-early Oscar predictions and a best-picture top ten that's mostly still unreleased.

34 films across 6 segments.

AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.

Amanda's Venice Fivethe 80th Venice International Film Festival, favorite last

Priscilla poster
No. 1

Priscilla 2023

No. 1. Sofia Coppola's Elvis-marriage film with Cailee Spaeny and Jacob Elordi. Amanda extended her trip for the red-carpet premiere and admits she's fully in the bag: vintage Coppola in the Marie Antoinette / Virgin Suicides vein, done well.

The Killer poster
No. 2

The Killer 2023

No. 2. David Fincher's hitman movie, adapted by Andrew Kevin Walker from the graphic novel. Amanda found it very funny and kept thinking of Sean, a guy in a half-zip with his tunes, trying to get the job done.

Poor Things poster
No. 3

Poor Things 2023

No. 3, held back so she and Sean could take it together. Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone's fourth collaboration; both loved it.

Ferrari poster
No. 4

Ferrari 2023

No. 4 and the first film Amanda saw. Michael Mann with Adam Driver as Enzo Ferrari and Penélope Cruz; the racing scenes are the draw. Italian festivalgoers were unconvinced by Driver's accent.

Maestro poster
No. 5

Maestro 2023

No. 5. Bradley Cooper's Leonard Bernstein film. Amanda was moved to tears in stretches, cooler on others, and suspects she liked different things in it than most of the raves did.

The rest of Amanda's Veniceoutside the ranked five

Evil Does Not Exist poster

Evil Does Not Exist 2023

Ryusuke Hamaguchi's follow-up to Drive My Car, a quiet chamber piece and a change of pace after the festival's louder competition titles. Recently passed over as Japan's international feature submission.

The Beast poster

The Beast 2023

Bertrand Bonello's three-timeline film with Léa Seydoux and George MacKay, one of the most acclaimed titles of the festival. Amanda found it Lynch-derivative and didn't connect, but wanted credit for sitting through the whole thing.

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar poster

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar 2023

Wes Anderson's Roald Dahl short, out of competition. Anderson picked up the Cartier-sponsored Glory to the Filmmaker Award. Classic Wes, and, Amanda argues, correctly not stretched to a feature.

Sean's Telluride Fivethe 50th Telluride Film Festival, favorite last

The Zone of Interest poster
No. 1

The Zone of Interest 2023

No. 1 and the best thing Sean saw. Jonathan Glazer's first film in a decade, an Auschwitz-adjacent domestic snapshot loosely off the Martin Amis novel. Harrowing and hard to talk about, possibly the most avant-garde movie ever to land a Best Picture nod.

The Taste of Things poster
No. 2

The Taste of Things 2023

No. 2. Tran Anh Hung's 19th-century French food romance with Juliette Binoche, one of the more sensual movies made about cooking, filed beside Babette's Feast and Big Night. The emotional inverse of Zone of Interest.

Poor Things poster
No. 3

Poor Things 2023

No. 3 and the movie of the festival season, discussed jointly. A hard, big-laughs comedy that lands every swing, with a scene-stealing Mark Ruffalo. Emma Stone already the odds-on Best Actress favorite.

The Bikeriders poster
No. 4

The Bikeriders 2024

No. 4 and the first film Sean saw. Jeff Nichols's motorcycle-club rise-and-fall with Tom Hardy, Austin Butler, and Jodie Comer's aggressive Chicago accent. Indebted to Scorsese: Goodfellas on motorcycles, reductively speaking.

All of Us Strangers poster
No. 5

All of Us Strangers 2023

No. 5. Andrew Haigh's grief drama with Andrew Scott, Paul Mescal, Claire Foy, and Jamie Bell. The big weepy of the year, though it didn't quite get Sean there. He singles out Jamie Bell.

The rest of Sean's Telluridehonorable mentions and the ones he's mixed on

The Royal Hotel poster

The Royal Hotel 2023

Kitty Green's outback thriller with Julia Garner and Jessica Henwick as two travelers working a shit-kicker bar in the middle of nowhere. Sean's biggest surprise: a tense, conventionally entertaining movie with a couple of really good ideas.

The Holdovers poster

The Holdovers 2023

Alexander Payne back to basics, reuniting with Paul Giamatti for the first time since Sideways as a teacher stuck at a boarding school over the holidays. Softer than Payne's best because he didn't write it; newcomer Dominic Sessa is a discovery.

Saltburn poster

Saltburn 2023

Emerald Fennell's Oxford class thriller with Barry Keoghan, Jacob Elordi, and a great Rosamund Pike. Gorgeous and wildly indebted to The Talented Mr. Ripley, but, like Promising Young Woman, some script choices left Sean confounded.

Rustin poster

Rustin 2023

George C. Wolfe's biopic of civil-rights organizer Bayard Rustin, with Colman Domingo the reason to watch. Conventional, right-down-the-middle Academy stuff, on Netflix soon.

Nyad poster

Nyad 2023

Free Solo directors Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi's narrative debut, with Annette Bening as the long-distance swimmer and Jodie Foster as her coach. Sean liked learning the sport more than he liked the choices.

The Pigeon Tunnel poster

The Pigeon Tunnel 2023

Errol Morris's John le Carré documentary, built on le Carré's last-ever interview. Sean says the double-agent theme comes through effectively.

La Chimera poster

La Chimera 2023

Alice Rohrwacher's film, which Sean liked, good enough that he calls out Josh O'Connor. It screened alongside Rohrwacher's Silver Medallion, one of three handed to directors this year because of the strikes.

The Way-Too-Early Best Picture Top 10Sean's ranking as of September 6, seven of the ten still unreleased

Oppenheimer poster
No. 1

Oppenheimer 2023

No. 1, and still the Best Picture favorite despite a weekend of festival raves.

Killers of the Flower Moon poster
No. 2

Killers of the Flower Moon 2023

No. 2. Played Cannes, goes wide October 20 with no preview screenings; Apple turned down Telluride's request for it.

Poor Things poster
No. 3

Poor Things 2023

No. 3. Feels like a nine-or-ten-nomination movie, with Emma Stone out front for Best Actress.

Barbie poster
No. 4

Barbie 2023

No. 4. The predicted haul narrows to screenplay, Best Actress, and a near-certain Original Song.

Maestro poster
No. 5

Maestro 2023

No. 5 and the shakiest of the top five: a deeply personal Bradley Cooper movie that Netflix can't campaign while the strikes hold.

The Holdovers poster
No. 6

The Holdovers 2023

No. 6. Played very well to the older Telluride crowd; Sean has notes, but it's the Academy.

All of Us Strangers poster
No. 7

All of Us Strangers 2023

No. 7, and the vehicle for Sean's Andrew Scott Best Actor prediction.

The Zone of Interest poster
No. 8

The Zone of Interest 2023

No. 8, one of Sean's international picks he treats as a firmer lock than the domestic titles above it.

Past Lives poster
No. 9

Past Lives 2023

No. 9. Already released and campaigning, which is exactly why it feels safer than the unseen movies.

Anatomy of a Fall poster
No. 10

Anatomy of a Fall 2023

No. 10. Neon's Cannes winner, out in October; Sandra Hüller already on the cover of The Hollywood Reporter.

The acting racespredictions built around movies still to come

Freud's Last Session poster

Freud's Last Session 2023

Anthony Hopkins for Sony Pictures Classics, a Best Actor wild card you never count out.

American Fiction poster

American Fiction 2023

Cord Jefferson's debut; Jeffrey Wright reportedly excellent, still sight-unseen for both hosts.

May December poster

May December 2023

Todd Haynes's new one, with Charles Melton hotly tipped in the supporting race.

The Iron Claw poster

The Iron Claw 2023

Named among the contenders still to arrive, alongside a stack of unreleased studio bets.

Also mentioned raised along the way

Still-unseen Best Picture threats The Color PurpleNapoleonSpider-Man: Across the Spider-VerseThe Boys in the Boat

At the festivals, not reviewed WildcatDaddioTuesday

Last year's predictions, revisited Women TalkingAll Quiet on the Western FrontGlass Onion: A Knives Out MysteryTop Gun: MaverickBones and AllCloseSaint OmerHappeningTitaneElvisThe WhaleBardoWhite NoiseEmpire of LightMarriage StoryJojo Rabbit

Comps and touchstones Lost in TranslationMarie AntoinetteThe Virgin SuicidesHouse of GucciDrive My CarUnder the SkinBirthSexy BeastAsteroid CityThe FavouritePromising Young WomanBabylonGone GirlThe Talented Mr. RipleyBabette's FeastBig NightMa Rainey's Black BottomFree SoloThe RescueGoodfellasDownsizingSidewaysElectionNebraskaA Star Is BornGreen BorderThe AssistantMoonlightLady BirdThe MatrixMidnight Cowboy

Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads

TV The GreatThe BearEuphoriaFleabagFormula 1: Drive to SurviveSuccession

Books The FlamethrowersBrideshead Revisited

Ads Netflix FIFA World CupBoar's HeadThe Ringer NFL ShowFanDuelCarvana