The Full Picture

The Big Picture · Review · Discussion · Interview

10 Irrational Best-Picture Oscar Predictions and Why ‘Belfast’ Is the Front-Runner

November 16, 2021/ 83 min/ Sean Fennessey · Amanda Dobbins

The show goes back to its Oscar roots, 131 days out from the ceremony. Belfast as the early front-runner, a run through the ten likely Best Picture nominees, a Will Smith stock check, and Sean's interview with Alison Klayman about her Alanis Morissette documentary, Jagged.

47 films across 4 segments.

AI-generated This episode was transcribed and analyzed with AI models. The matches aren't perfect — expect the occasional misheard title or a link to the wrong film.

Belfastthe early front-runner

Belfast poster

Belfast 2021

Kenneth Branagh's autobiographical film, told from the perspective of nine-year-old Buddy as the Troubles break out in 1969 Northern Ireland. Sean saw it at Telluride; a sweet, sincere crowd-pleaser scored largely by Van Morrison. Amanda loved it (and the two very beautiful parents) until she remembered it might win Best Picture. Jude Hill, Caitríona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Judi Dench, and Ciarán Hinds all in the awards mix.

Roma poster

Roma 2018

The inevitable comparison: Alfonso Cuarón's black-and-white childhood remembrance. Sean calls it stylistically and intellectually more dynamic than Belfast.

Jojo Rabbit poster

Jojo Rabbit 2019

Amanda's other touchstone: political turmoil swirling around a small kid, hitting the same crowd-pleasing sweet spot, minus the Hitler jokes.

Moonlight poster

Moonlight 2016

Cited as the kind of small, deeply personal film the Academy has rewarded against a franchise-dominated industry.

Green Book poster

Green Book 2018

The other 'for better or worse' precedent: an intimate, small-cast winner Belfast has something in common with.

The Branagh problema strange 20-film résumé

Henry V poster

Henry V 1989

The bravura breakthrough; the hosts agree his Shakespeare adaptations are his best films.

Much Ado About Nothing poster

Much Ado About Nothing 1993

Amanda's favorite of the big-budget Shakespeare, ridiculous but fun, from the Emma Thompson era.

Hamlet poster

Hamlet 1996

Part of the case for Branagh as the modern Olivier and Shakespeare's ambassador to pop culture.

Dead Again poster

Dead Again 1991

Sean had just watched it, an Emma Thompson neo-noir/screwball that has no idea what it wants to be.

Thor poster

Thor 2011

Exhibit A for the decade of commercial work-for-hire that left him 'in the wilderness.'

Cinderella poster

Cinderella 2015

The Lily James Disney adaptation, a big hit the hosts thought was fine.

Artemis Fowl poster

Artemis Fowl 2020

One of the most reviled films of 2020, a Disney+ casualty of the pandemic.

Sense and Sensibility poster

Sense and Sensibility 1995

Invoked via Greg Wise (Mr. Willoughby), whom Emma Thompson later married. Part of Amanda forgiving Branagh.

The Best Picture raceten nominees, mostly still unreleased

The Power of the Dog poster

The Power of the Dog 2021

Jane Campion's return to form, widely hailed; the other presumed front-runner. Neither host has seen it yet; it opens December 1. Sean's nagging hunch: a late Benedict Cumberbatch surprise.

King Richard poster

King Richard 2021

Opening at week's end; treated as a Best Picture lock on the strength of Will Smith.

Dune poster

Dune 2021

The only wide-release blockbuster with real clout in the race, the 'Mad Max spot.' Sean doesn't think it's a lock; Amanda talks herself into it.

West Side Story poster

West Side Story 2021

Unseen but penciled in on Spielberg and Kushner alone. Amanda is scarred by Ariana DeBose's Oscar pre-show and pinning her hopes on Rachel Zegler.

The Lost Daughter poster

The Lost Daughter 2021

Maggie Gyllenhaal's Elena Ferrante adaptation, which Sean thought was fantastic; Olivia Colman all but guarantees it a slot.

The Tragedy of Macbeth poster

The Tragedy of Macbeth 2021

Joel Coen's black-and-white Macbeth with Frances McDormand and Denzel Washington; very warm reviews from the New York Film Festival, A24 and Apple.

Being the Ricardos poster

Being the Ricardos 2021

Aaron Sorkin on Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz; a strong first screening despite doubts and rough trailers.

Nightmare Alley poster

Nightmare Alley 2021

Guillermo del Toro, Academy-beloved; unseen but slotted in as one of the two most likely remaining nominees.

CODA poster

CODA 2021

Apple's Sundance buy; not the phenomenon Ted Lasso was, but 'if people actually watch it, they'll enjoy it.' Amanda's tenth pick as a test of Apple.

Don't Look Up poster

Don't Look Up 2021

Adam McKay's DiCaprio/Lawrence satire; star-studded but a comedy, which historically doesn't play: 'if it's more comedy than commentary, it might be on the outside looking in.'

House of Gucci poster

House of Gucci 2021

Mixed reviews, but the hosts loved it. Amanda's rant: bully an Academy voter in your life into embracing it, and put Jared Leto back at the center of the race.

Licorice Pizza poster

Licorice Pizza 2021

Paul Thomas Anderson's new film, another Phantom Thread situation where it's never obvious when the Academy logs on with PTA.

Spencer poster

Spencer 2021

Discussed the prior week; perhaps too weird for Academy tastes ('or boring, if you're Amanda').

Passing poster

Passing 2021

Rebecca Hall's directorial debut, just on Netflix. Sean rates the performances, Tessa Thompson and especially Ruth Negga, over the film; a possible below-the-line play in costume or production design.

Tick, Tick... Boom! poster

Tick, Tick... Boom! 2021

Lin-Manuel Miranda's Jonathan Larson quasi-musical with Andrew Garfield; Sean liked it a lot. Second-tier, likely just outside.

Parallel Mothers poster

Parallel Mothers 2021

Pedro Almodóvar's New York Film Festival entry, out at year's end.

Swan Song poster

Swan Song 2021

Benjamin Cleary's soft-sci-fi Apple film: Mahershala Ali's first solo lead, a standout performance.

The Tender Bar poster

The Tender Bar 2021

George Clooney's J.R. Moehringer adaptation with Ben Affleck; delightful, but not a Best Picture contender.

Cyrano poster

Cyrano 2021

Joe Wright's musical with Peter Dinklage.

A Journal for Jordan poster

A Journal for Jordan 2021

Denzel Washington directing, Michael B. Jordan starring; Denzel's own voiceover closes the trailer.

A Hero poster

A Hero 2021

Asghar Farhadi's latest morality play, 'the most consistent filmmaker in the world.' A Best International Feature contender Sean thinks belongs in the Best Picture race.

The Last Duel poster

The Last Duel 2021

A box-office bomb Sean rates among the year's best; a marketing failure for leaving Ben Affleck out of the trailer.

Red Rocket poster

Red Rocket 2021

Sean Baker's film with Simon Rex; Sean has a lot of feelings, saved for next week.

C'mon C'mon poster

C'mon C'mon 2021

Mike Mills's new film: wonderful performances, makes them feel good about the world, but doesn't read as an Oscar contender.

The French Dispatch poster

The French Dispatch 2021

Wes Anderson's ensemble, considered slight by some and doing soft business, but as good to Sean's taste as most of the field.

Alison Klayman on Jaggedthe Music Box entry on Alanis Morissette

Jagged poster
Alison Klayman on

Jagged 2021

Klayman's intimate portrait of Alanis Morissette around Jagged Little Pill, part of Ringer Films and HBO's Music Box series (Sean is a producer). Built around a two-day master interview and hundreds of hours of Morissette's own storage-unit archive, shot as one of the first COVID-era productions. Morissette is not promoting the film.

Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry poster
Alison Klayman on

Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry 2012

Klayman's earlier subject-driven portrait, invoked for how she embeds with her subjects.

The Brink poster
Alison Klayman on

The Brink 2019

Her Steve Bannon film: the other case where the main character didn't tour the movie with her.

The Velvet Underground poster
Alison Klayman on

The Velvet Underground 2021

Todd Haynes's doc, cited for the 'only people who were there' approach Klayman shares.

Alison Klayman on

Don't Go Telling Your Mama 2021

Klayman's last-great-thing: a ~40-minute visual album by Topaz Jones and Rubberband, inspired by the Black ABCs, which she was judging for DOC NYC.

Also mentioned raised along the way

In passing EternalsHustlersThe Trial of the Chicago 7Phantom ThreadCitizen KaneMad Max: Fury RoadRoad House

Not films filtered out: TV, games, ads

TV Ted LassoBehind the MusicThe Tonight Show Starring Jimmy FallonMusic Box

Music Jagged Little PillAll Too WellVery Necessary

Ads Boar's HeadCarvanaThe Press Box